Match Analysis: Cleveland Guardians vs Kansas City Royals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-11
- Time: 11:16 PM UTC
- Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
Game Overview
The Cleveland Guardians host the Kansas City Royals in the 4th game of their series with the Royals holding a 2-1 lead. Cleveland is favored with starting pitcher Gavin Williams (10-5, 3.17 ERA, 1.29 WHIP), while Kansas City fields Stephen Kolek. The game is expected to be competitive, with a moderately low total run line projected.
Key Factors to Consider
- Guardians have a 74-71 record with a .225 batting average and 3.87 ERA, led offensively by Jose Ramirez (.287 AVG, 76 RBI, 28 HR). Royals stand at 74-72 with a slightly better .244 batting average and 3.67 ERA, led by Bobby Witt Jr. (.295 AVG) and Vinnie Pasquantino (100 RBI, 29 HR). Cleveland performs well as favorites, winning 36 of 58 games and covering -134 moneyline 16 of 23 times.
- The Royals lead the series 2-1. Historically, the teams have had competitive matchups with Guardians favored at home. The predicted lines reflect a tight contest with Cleveland slightly favored to even the series.
- No notable injuries reported for either team impacting starting lineups or pitching rotations for this game.
- Game played outdoors at Progressive Field in Cleveland, with typical late-summer weather expected; no extreme weather or external disruptions forecasted.
- Both teams are close in standings and fighting for playoff positioning late in the season, adding competitive intensity to this contest.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians: -134, Kansas City Royals: 114 | Cleveland Guardians win | β β β ββ 56% |
| Spread | Cleveland Guardians -1.5: 150, Kansas City Royals +1.5: -182 | Kansas City Royals +1.5 cover | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 8: -104, Under 8: -118 | Under 8 runs | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Guardians -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cleveland Guardians to win narrowly, leveraging home advantage and stable pitching against the Royals' strong offensive capabilities.
Predicted Score: Cleveland Guardians 4 – Kansas City Royals 3