Match Analysis: Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-20
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ford Field, Detroit, MI
Game Overview
The Detroit Lions (4-2, 2-0 home) host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1, 3-0 away) in a high-stakes NFC showdown. The Lions are fresh off a bounceback win and boast a stellar home streak, while the Buccaneers have been excellent on the road and lead their division.
Key Factors to Consider
- Detroit is averaging 31.8 points per game with a strong offense and solid defense (23.7 ppg allowed). Tampa Bay is 5-1 but has had closer wins and a weaker points differential (+14 vs Detroit's +49). The Bucs are undefeated on the road, but Detroit is perfect at home and coming off a dominant 30-19 win over a strong 49ers team.
- Recent H2H data is not provided, but both teams are in good form. Detroit has not lost back-to-back games in nearly three years, a testament to their resilience.
- No major injury updates are available in the provided data. Assume both teams are near full strength unless late reports indicate otherwise.
- The game is at Ford Field, where Detroit is 2-0 this season. Primetime (Monday Night Football) could amplify home-field advantage. Weather is not a reported factor.
- Both teams are playoff contenders with division leads at stake. Detroit is motivated to protect their home streak and NFC North position. Tampa Bay wants to solidify their NFC South lead and road dominance.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | DET -270 / TB +220 | Detroit Lions ML | β β β β β 73% |
Spread | DET -5.5 -115 / TB +5.5 -105 | Detroit Lions -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 52.5 -115 / Under 52.5 -105 | Under 52.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Detroit Lions -11% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 52.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 52.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Despite Tampa Bay's strong road record, Detroit is playing at a higher level offensively and has been dominant at home. The Lions' recent form, especially after a statement win over San Francisco, gives them a clear edge. Expect Detroit to control the game and cover the spread in a moderately high-scoring affair, but not a shootout.
Predicted Score: Detroit Lions 27, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21