Match Analysis: Kansas State Wildcats vs Iowa State Cyclones – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Aviva Stadium, Dublin, Ireland
Game Overview
Ranked Big 12 rivalry featuring No. 17 Kansas State Wildcats hosting No. 22 Iowa State Cyclones at a neutral site overseas. Both teams enter fresh at 0-0 with similar offensive and defensive capabilities, promising a competitive early-season matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
- Kansas State averaged 30.8 PPG and allowed 23.4 PPG last season, finishing 9-4; Iowa State averaged 31.1 PPG and allowed 22.9 PPG, finishing 11-3 and winning a bowl game, indicating closely matched offensive and defensive units.
- Recent encounters favor Iowa State having won four of the last five games, including a significant 29-21 win last November marked by turnovers and key defensive stops; however, simulation models show Kansas State narrowly favored to win by about 4.3 points.
- No major injuries reported for either team at kickoff, suggesting both squads should be at near full strength.
- The game is played at Aviva Stadium in Dublin, a neutral overseas venue, which may slightly reduce home-field advantage for Kansas State and impact team routines; travel and unfamiliar conditions could influence performance.
- Both teams start with strong motivation to win a prestigious non-conference rivalry game to set tone for the season; Iowa State's status as slight underdog could fuel an upset attempt, while Kansas State aims to confirm favoritism.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas State -155, Iowa State +130 | Kansas State | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Kansas State -3 -110, Iowa State +3 -110 | Kansas State -3 | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 50.5 -112, Under 50.5 -108 | Under 50.5 | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas State Wildcats 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 50.5 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 50.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kansas State Wildcats to win outright and cover the 3-point spread; the total score to stay under 50.5 points.
Predicted Score: Kansas State 24 – 18 Iowa State