Match Analysis: Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Princess Auto Stadium, Winnipeg, Manitoba
Game Overview
The 112th Grey Cup features the Saskatchewan Roughriders (13-6, #1 seed West) hosting the Montreal Alouettes (12-8, #2 seed East) in the CFL championship. Saskatchewan earned a dramatic late-game victory over BC in the West Final, while Montreal secured a walk-off field goal win against Hamilton in the East Final. The Roughriders boast the league's second-best defense (342 yards allowed/game) and second-best offense (383.8 yards/game), while Montreal faces significant quarterback uncertainty entering the championship with Davis Alexander dealing with a reaggravated hamstring injury.
Key Factors to Consider
- Saskatchewan finished the regular season with the best record in the CFL and demonstrated championship poise by rallying late against BC. The Roughriders' defense is elite, and their balanced offensive attack gives them multiple paths to victory. Montreal has been hot down the stretch but showed vulnerability late in the season due to QB injuries. The Alouettes' three-game winning streak masks underlying concerns about quarterback durability and depth.
- The teams split their two regular-season meetings (1-1), with Montreal winning both matchups played without Davis Alexander due to hamstring injury. This factor is critical—Alexander's injury status entering the Grey Cup creates significant uncertainty for Montreal's offensive execution at the most important game of the season.
- Davis Alexander (Montreal QB) reaggravated his hamstring injury late in the East Final victory and is a serious concern entering Sunday. His presence or absence dramatically affects Montreal's offensive ceiling. Saskatchewan appears relatively healthy with no significant injury concerns reported.
- Weather in Winnipeg forecasts a high of 2 degrees Celsius with mixed sun and cloud—cold conditions that typically favor defensive teams and ground-oriented offenses. Saskatchewan's elite defense is well-suited to capitalize on these conditions. The game is played at a neutral site (Princess Auto Stadium in Winnipeg), eliminating home-field advantage despite Saskatchewan being the higher seed.
- Saskatchewan seeks its first Grey Cup since 2013 after establishing the league's best regular-season record. Montreal aims for a second championship in three years and carries momentum from late-season success. However, Saskatchewan's superior regular-season performance and healthier roster provide stronger motivational positioning heading into the championship game.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saskatchewan -184, Montreal +152 | Saskatchewan Roughriders | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Saskatchewan -3.5 (-106), Montreal +3.5 (-114) | Saskatchewan -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 48.5 (-110), Under 48.5 (-110) | Under 48.5 | ★★★☆☆ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Saskatchewan Roughriders 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Saskatchewan Roughriders will defeat the Montreal Alouettes in a defensive-heavy championship game. The Roughriders' elite defense, balanced offense, superior regular-season credentials, and Montreal's quarterback injury concerns create a favorable risk-reward profile at current odds.
Predicted Score: Saskatchewan Roughriders 24, Montreal Alouettes 18