Match Analysis: Sport Recife vs Fluminense – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Sport Recife Home Stadium
Game Overview
This Brazil Serie A matchup features Sport Recife hosting Fluminense. Fluminense currently sits 9th in the league with moderate offensive output but a tendency to concede slightly more goals than expected. Sport Recife struggles defensively with 34 goals conceded so far, but has shown competitive spirit at home and has won 4 of their recent 5 matches. Fluminense holds psychological edge with 4 consecutive wins over Sport Recife and better recent H2H stats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fluminense averages 1.18 goals scored per match and concedes around 1.32, showing defensive vulnerability despite balanced attack. Sport Recife’s defense is porous with 34 goals conceded (1.55 avg). Sport Recife’s recent form includes narrow scores, highlighting low-scoring games.
- Fluminense leads recent H2H encounters with 4 consecutive wins over Sport Recife. Overall H2H favors Fluminense (8 wins vs 4 for Sport). The last direct encounter ended 2-1 to Fluminense in May 2025.
- Sport Recife is missing Hereda and Sérgio Oliveira due to injury, which weakens their defensive and midfield options. Fluminense has injured Ganso and Nonato, likely affecting their creativity and midfield depth.
- No significant external disruptions reported. Match is at Sport Recife’s home venue which provides them a motivational boost.
- Sport Recife motivated to defend home turf and improve defensive record. Fluminense aims to maintain dominance in H2H while climbing league standings.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense: 153, Sport Recife: 205, Draw: 207 | Fluminense | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Spread | Fluminense 0: -134, Sport Recife 0: 114 | Sport Recife 0 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Over/under | Over 2: -123, Under 2: 103 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Fluminense 21% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Fluminense to win on the moneyline, Sport Recife +0 spread, Under 2 goals
Predicted Score: Fluminense 1 – 0 Sport Recife