Match Analysis: Mirassol vs Vasco da Gama – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-02
- Time: 9:30 PM UTC
- Location: Mirassol Home Stadium
Game Overview
Mirassol hosts Vasco da Gama in a Brazilian Serie A matchup where Mirassol enters as slight favorites based on recent form and home advantage. Vasco da Gama has struggled lately with no wins in their last five games, contrasting with Mirassol's unbeaten streak over the same period.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mirassol has a strong recent run: 3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses in last 5 games. Vasco da Gama has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in last 5 games, showing clear form gap favoring Mirassol.
- Historical data indicates a slight advantage to Mirassol, with a tendency for over 2.5 goals and goals scored by both teams in these encounters.
- No notable injury reports affecting the starting line-ups for either team, implying both squads should be near full strength.
- Mirassol plays at home with strong local support. The match is televised on multiple channels, indicating normal playing conditions without scheduling conflicts or extreme external pressures.
- Mirassol is motivated to maintain strong league position and capitalize on current form, while Vasco da Gama is motivated to end their winless run but are under pressure with recent performance concerns.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 100, Vasco da Gama 320, Draw 225 | Mirassol | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Mirassol -0.5 100, Vasco da Gama +50 -120 | Mirassol -0.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Over/under | Over 2.25 -105, Under 2.25 -115 | Under 2.25 goals | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Mirassol 20% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2.25 12% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Mirassol at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Mirassol to win the match on the moneyline, covering the -0.5 spread, with a moderately low scoring game under 2.25 goals.
Predicted Score: 1-0