Match Analysis: Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-27
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Maracanã Stadium, Rio de Janeiro
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato match features Flamengo hosting Atletico Mineiro, two historically strong teams with a close head-to-head record and recent differing forms. Flamengo stands higher in the league table and has favorable recent results, while Atletico Mineiro shows strong defensive form and unbeaten run in Copa do Brasil.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo ranks 4th in the league and has won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring and conceding more goals. Atletico Mineiro ranks 10th with mixed form in Serie A but is unbeaten recently in Copa do Brasil and defensively strong.
- In their last 50 meetings, Flamengo leads with 21 wins to Atletico's 18, and 11 draws. Recent matches show Flamengo's slightly better offensive output (1.3 PPG vs. 1.4 for Atletico) and better handicap win rate (60%). Historically close rivalry with some big wins on both sides.
- Currently no major reported injuries impacting key starters for either squad.
- Flamengo plays at home in Maracanã, benefiting from home support. Both teams have similar travel conditions and no significant weather or external disruptions expected.
- Flamengo aims to consolidate a higher league position with strong home performance. Atletico Mineiro targets to bounce back after inconsistent league form and maintain unbeaten Copa do Brasil momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo: -215, Draw: 330, Atletico Mineiro: 625 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Spread | Flamengo -1: -125, Atletico Mineiro +1: 105 | Flamengo -1 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Over/under | Over 2.25: -110, Under 2.25: -110 | Over 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo -12% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Over 2.25 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.25 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win the match with a narrow margin, with expectation of moderate goal scoring but a solid defensive challenge from Atletico Mineiro.
Predicted Score: 2-1