Match Analysis: Corinthians vs Flamengo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-28
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Neo Química Arena, São Paulo
Game Overview
The upcoming Brasileirão Serie A match sees top-of-the-table Flamengo visiting mid-table Corinthians. Flamengo leads the league with 51 points from 23 matches, while Corinthians sit 10th with 29 points from 24 games, showing clear strength disparity between the teams.
Key Factors to Consider
- Flamengo have been in excellent form with a record of 15W-6D-2L, while Corinthians have struggled maintaining consistent results, recording 7W-8D-9L. Flamengo’s offensive and defensive solidity is reflected in their +37 goal difference compared to Corinthians’ negative 5.
- In the last 10 encounters, Flamengo won 4, Corinthians 2, and 4 ended in draws. Historically, Flamengo holds a slight dominance overall and in recent meetings.
- No significant injury absences reported for either side from available data, suggesting both teams should field their strongest squads.
- The match being at Corinthians’ home ground offers them home advantage; however, Flamengo’s superior league position and momentum can mitigate this factor.
- Flamengo is highly motivated to maintain their lead atop the table late in the season. Corinthians have less incentive, currently mid-table and with less chance of title contention, reducing their urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Corinthians +380, Flamengo -125, Draw +235 | Flamengo | ★★★★☆ 74% |
Spread | Corinthians +50 +105, Flamengo -0.5 -125 | Flamengo -0.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Over/under | Over 2 -108, Under 2 -112 | Under 2 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Flamengo 8% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 2 23% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2 at 23% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 25.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Flamengo to win on the moneyline, cover the -0.5 spread, and the game to finish under 2 goals.
Predicted Score: 0-1