Match Analysis: Lenier Pero vs Jordan Thompson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-02
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Caribe Royale Orlando, Orlando
Game Overview
The fight features undefeated Lenier Pero (12-0, 8 KOs) versus Jordan Thompson (15-1, 12 KOs) over 10 rounds in the heavyweight division. Pero brings technical defensive skills with a southpaw stance, while Thompson offers more punching power and aggression with an orthodox style.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pero is undefeated with a slightly better defensive record but lower KO ratio (67%) compared to Thompson’s 80%. Thompson has more total fights and KO power but suffered one loss. Both are 32 years old with similar ring experience in rounds fought.
- No direct head-to-head fights recorded between Pero and Thompson. Pero debuted later but has fought slightly more rounds overall (48 vs. 45).
- No reported injuries or physical concerns for either fighter leading up to the bout.
- The fight takes place in Orlando with no apparent location advantage. Broadcast is set on DAZN with high interest. No disruptive external factors identified.
- Pero has motivation to maintain his undefeated record and WBA #3 ranking; Thompson is motivated to prove power and secure an upset victory to boost credentials.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lenier Pero: -550, Jordan Thompson: +366 | Lenier Pero | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Pero -2.5 rounds: -150, Thompson +2.5 rounds: +130 | Pero -2.5 rounds (win by clear margin) | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 6.5 rounds: +100, Under 6.5 rounds: -130 | Under 6.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lenier Pero -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 6.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lenier Pero to win by decision
Predicted Score: Pero wins by unanimous decision after 10 rounds
