Match Analysis: Erick Rosa vs Kyosuke Takami – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-07-30
- Time: 8:00 AM UTC
- Location: Yokohama Buntai, Yokohama, Japan
Game Overview
Erick Rosa defends his WBA Jr Flyweight title against Kyosuke Takami in a 12-round bout at Yokohama Buntai. Rosa holds the championship for 7 months with a recent victory, while Takami is a strong challenger fighting at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rosa exhibits a slightly higher recent win prediction at 53% with a more aggressive punching rate (554 punches per fight) compared to Takami (364), but Takami compensates with decent accuracy and home advantage.
- No direct past matchup data available; both fighters are undefeated or possess strong records making this a high-stakes, even contest.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight is on Takami's home soil in Japan, with strong promotional backing and substantial motivation for the local fighter. Rosa is facing a motivated title defense in hostile territory.
- Rosa is defending his first title and aiming to solidify his reign, while Takami seeks to claim the championship on home ground, giving both fighters high motivation.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Erick Rosa: +450, Kyosuke Takami: -700 | Kyosuke Takami | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Takami -3.5: -150, Rosa +3.5: +130 | Takami -3.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5 rounds: -140, Under 10.5 rounds: +110 | Over 10.5 rounds | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kyosuke Takami -9% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 10.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 10.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Kyosuke Takami wins by decision
Predicted Score: Kyosuke Takami wins by unanimous decision after 12 rounds