Match Analysis: Žalgiris vs Valencia Basket – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-07
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Žalgirio Arena
Game Overview
Žalgiris hosts Valencia Basket in a EuroLeague clash at Žalgirio Arena. Both teams are in solid form, but Žalgiris has shown dominance at home and in recent head-to-head matchups. Valencia is a strong road team but faces a tough defensive challenge.
Key Factors to Consider
- Žalgiris averages 87.3 points per game and recently dismantled ASVEL 96-59 at home. Valencia averages 92.4 points per game and narrowly beat Dubai 80-78. Žalgiris has won 6 of their last 8 games, while Valencia has won 5 of their last 8.
- Žalgiris leads the H2H series 6-5. In the last 11 meetings, Žalgiris has scored under 88.5 points in 10 games. The average total in H2H is 157.82, well below the current line. Žalgiris covered the spread in their last H2H meeting (84-79).
- No major injuries reported for either team.
- Žalgiris enjoys a strong home-court advantage at Žalgirio Arena, where they average 86 points per game. Valencia averages 92.25 points per game on the road.
- Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but Žalgiris is coming off a dominant win and is highly motivated to continue their strong home form.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -159, away: 125 | Žalgiris | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -3, away: 3 | Žalgiris -3 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | over: 172, under: 172 | Under 172 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Žalgiris -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 172 32% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 172 at 32% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 36.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Žalgiris wins and covers the spread, but the total stays under 172 points.
Predicted Score: 84-82