Match Analysis: Žalgiris vs Saski Baskonia – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Žalgirio Arena, Kaunas
Game Overview
This Euroleague basketball match features Žalgiris Kaunas hosting Saski Baskonia at Žalgirio Arena. Both teams are competitive in the regular season, with Žalgiris having a slight home advantage and a solid historic performance in their head-to-head matchups. Saski Baskonia is slightly favored in recent form but faces a tough road game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Žalgiris has shown strong home form and resilience in close games, including a recent narrow loss to a strong Real Madrid team by one point. Saski Baskonia has been consistent but less dominant on the road in the Euroleague, with mixed recent results including a notable win against Bayern.
- In recent Euroleague meetings, Saski Baskonia leads with 57% wins versus Žalgiris's 43%. Their last encounter on November 24, 2024, saw Saski Baskonia winning 83-70 away. Historically, many games have been competitive with close margins.
- No significant injury information is currently available for either team. Both are expected to field their main rotations.
- The game is played in a strong home atmosphere for Žalgiris at their arena, which often energizes the home side. Travel fatigue and schedule congestion could affect Saski Baskonia more.
- Both teams are motivated for a Euroleague win to improve standings and secure playoff positioning. Žalgiris will be particularly driven to defend home court.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Žalgiris: -260, Saski Baskonia: 205 | Žalgiris win | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Žalgiris: -5.5 (-116), Saski Baskonia: +5.5 (-106) | Žalgiris -5.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 168.5 (-110), Under: 168.5 (-110) | Under 168.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Žalgiris -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 168.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 168.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on the home advantage, current odds, and historical competitiveness, Žalgiris is favored to win by a close margin, expected to cover the -5.5 spread. The game is likely to be moderately high scoring but may stay under the 168.5 over/under line.
Predicted Score: Žalgiris 85 – 78 Saski Baskonia