Match Analysis: Western Michigan Broncos vs Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-23
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: University Arena, Kalamazoo
Game Overview
The Western Michigan Broncos (2-4) host the Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers (1-4) in an NCAA Men's basketball matchup. Both teams have struggled this season with Western Michigan holding a slight advantage in overall record and home performance. The Broncos have a marginally better scoring and defensive profile but neither team shows strong offensive efficiency. The probable game pace and scoring are expected to be moderate, indicating a close contest with a defensive emphasis.
Key Factors to Consider
- Western Michigan shows a 2-1 record at home but is 0-3 on the road, with an overall negative point differential (-34). Mount St. Mary's has a worse overall negative point differential (-41) and is winless at home. Both teams have lost their last two games, indicating recent struggles. Field goal percentages are close with Western Michigan shooting 44% overall versus 43% for Mount St. Mary's, while free throw accuracy favors Western Michigan significantly.
- Limited recent head-to-head data available, but the teams have not established a strong rivalry or recent dominant performance over each other. Historical matchups suggest evenly matched competition without a clear pattern of dominance.
- No specific injury updates reported in the latest data sources, indicating both teams likely to have their main rosters available for the game.
- The game is held at Western Michiganβs home court, which provides a slight advantage. No weather or travel disruptions are noted. Betting markets reflect close odds, implying bookmakers see a tightly contested game.
- Both teams have sub-.500 records and will be motivated to secure a win to improve their season start. Western Michiganβs home advantage and slight edge in recent form may boost their confidence, while Mount St. Mary's is motivated to overcome their road struggles.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers: -105, Western Michigan Broncos: -115 | Western Michigan Broncos to win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers +1.5: -120, Western Michigan Broncos -1.5: 100 | Western Michigan Broncos -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5: -105, Under 151.5: -115 | Under 151.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Western Michigan Broncos to win a close game with a final score under the 151.5 total points line, based on defensive tendencies and recent form.
Predicted Score: Western Michigan Broncos 77, Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers 73