Match Analysis: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs Tennessee St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Sunday, November 16, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: E.A. Diddle Arena, Bowling Green, Kentucky
Game Overview
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, undefeated at 2-0, host the Tennessee State Tigers (2-1) in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Western Kentucky enters as heavy favorites with dominant odds, looking to extend their perfect record against a Tigers team seeking consistency on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Western Kentucky is 2-0 with impressive offensive efficiency, averaging 84.5 PPG on 43.9% field goal shooting, 20.6% from three-point range, and 73% from the free throw line. Key scorers include Teagan Moore (19 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Grant Newell (15.5 PPG), and Terrion Murdix (11.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3 APG). Tennessee State is 2-1 and has struggled in road contests (0-1 away). The Tigers have won their last game but lost 11 of their last 12 games against non-conference opponents. Western Kentucky won their last meeting 84-60.
- Western Kentucky defeated Tennessee State 84-60 in their most recent matchup. Western Kentucky has won 14 consecutive day games against non-conference opponents at E.A. Diddle Arena. Tennessee State has lost 11 of its last 12 non-conference games overall.
- No specific injury information available from provided data.
- The game is played at Western Kentucky's home arena, providing a significant home court advantage. Western Kentucky has demonstrated mastery in day games at this venue historically. The matchup occurs early in the season when team form can be volatile.
- Western Kentucky seeks to maintain perfect record and home dominance. Tennessee State aims to prove road competitiveness and break a negative non-conference trend. Western Kentucky has lost three of their last day games historically, presenting a contrarian angle.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | WKU -600 | TSU +425 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers WIN | β β β β β 87% |
| Spread | WKU -10.5 (-115) | TSU +10.5 (-105) | Western Kentucky -10.5 COVER | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 168.5 (-110) | Under 168.5 (-110) | UNDER 168.5 | 55-60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 168.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 168.5 at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are heavily favored to win this matchup. Despite some historical volatility in day games, their 2-0 record, superior offensive efficiency, dominant home court record at E.A. Diddle Arena, and previous 84-60 victory over Tennessee State make them overwhelming favorites. Tennessee State's 0-1 away record and 11-of-12 non-conference losses further support Western Kentucky's dominance. The total is expected to stay under 168.5, as both teams' recent game patterns and combined scoring trends favor lower-scoring contests.
Predicted Score: Western Kentucky 82, Tennessee State 68