Match Analysis: West Virginia Mountaineers vs Pittsburgh Panthers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 13, 2025
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, West Virginia
Game Overview
This matchup features the 192nd all-time meeting between Pittsburgh and West Virginia in the fierce 'Backyard Brawl' rivalry. Both teams enter undefeated at 3-0, with Pittsburgh averaging 76.7 points on 45.4% shooting while holding opponents to 61.7 points per game. West Virginia has demonstrated elite defensive prowess, holding opponents to just 36.3% from the field and ranking 53rd in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency on KenPom. The Mountaineers hold a 101-90 series lead but Pittsburgh has won the last two matchups, including an 86-62 victory at home last season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Pittsburgh enters with solid offensive efficiency (76.7 PPG) and stout defense (61.7 PPG allowed). The Panthers are methodical in pace, ranking 313th in Adjusted Tempo. West Virginia has won all three games decisively, including a 22-point victory in their last outing. Their defense is locked in under head coach Steve Hodge, and they're 3-0 in their last 5 games. However, West Virginia is only 1-2 against the spread in their last five games.
- West Virginia leads the all-time series 101-90. The Mountaineers have won 6 of the last 8 matchups but Pittsburgh has won the previous 2 consecutive games, including a dominant 86-62 home victory last season. This is a revenge situation for West Virginia at home.
- Pittsburgh's availability of key player Cummings is uncertain and could significantly impact their offensive execution. If Cummings doesn't play, Pittsburgh will be further challenged by West Virginia's elite defense.
- Morgantown is considered a very tough place to play in basketball. West Virginia's home-court advantage, combined with their elite defense and high motivation for revenge, provides substantial support for the Mountaineers. Pittsburgh's 313th-ranked tempo suggests a methodical, low-scoring approach that could limit their effectiveness.
- This is a revenge matchup for West Virginia after losing the last two games in the rivalry. The Mountaineers are at home with a new coach (Hodge) and mostly new players, adding to their motivation to reassert dominance in the rivalry.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | WVU: -275 | PITT: +220 | West Virginia Mountaineers Win | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | WVU -5.5 (-110) | PITT +5.5 (-110) | West Virginia -5.5 (Cover) | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 134.5 (-105) | Under 134.5 (-115) | Under 134.5 | β β β β β 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 134.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 134.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
West Virginia will defeat Pittsburgh 70-60 in a low-scoring affair. The Mountaineers' elite defense, home-court advantage, revenge motivation, and superior team composition will overcome Pittsburgh's solid early-season performance. The methodical pace of both teams, combined with West Virginia's defensive prowess, will result in a defensive struggle favoring the home team.
Predicted Score: West Virginia 70, Pittsburgh 60