Match Analysis: West Georgia Wolves vs The Citadel Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 14, 2025
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Coliseum, Carrollton, GA
Game Overview
ASUN/SoCon Challenge matchup between West Georgia Wolves (1-2 home) and The Citadel Bulldogs (1-2 away). Both teams enter with identical records but West Georgia operates as 5.5-point home favorites, indicating market confidence in the home team's scoring potential and defensive positioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- West Georgia averages 78.3 PPG on 47.1% shooting while allowing 84 PPG on 44.3% shooting. Citadel averages 59.5 PPG on 42.9% shooting while allowing 58.5 PPG on 45.9% shooting. West Georgia scores significantly more (78.3 vs 59.5) and plays faster-paced basketball. Citadel has lost 24 of its last 25 games against non-AP-ranked opponents, a critical red flag. West Georgia has lost 10 of its last 13 games, indicating poor recent form despite higher scoring output.
- No direct H2H history provided in available data. This is their first matchup this season.
- No injury information available in provided data.
- Game broadcast on ESPN+. Neutral court advantage slightly favors West Georgia as home team. Both teams are non-AP-ranked, placing Citadel's historical weakness against such opponents into sharp focus.
- Both teams seek to improve sub-.500 records and build momentum. West Georgia has home court advantage. Citadel must overcome significant historical struggles in this exact scenario (non-ranked opponents).
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | West Georgia -205 / Citadel +170 | West Georgia Wolves (-205) | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | West Georgia -5.5 -105 / Citadel +5.5 -115 | West Georgia -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 148.5 -110 / Under 148.5 -110 | Under 148.5 | β β β ββ 61% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | West Georgia Wolves -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 148.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 148.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.1% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
West Georgia Wolves to win the game and cover the spread. The Wolves' 19-point scoring advantage per game (78.3 vs 59.5 PPG) is too significant to overcome. Citadel's historical collapse against non-ranked opponents (24 of 25 losses) combined with their anemic 59.5 PPG output makes them particularly vulnerable. West Georgia's home court advantage and superior offensive efficiency create a decisive edge despite recent poor form.
Predicted Score: West Georgia 76, Citadel 68 (WGA -8 cover, Under 144 total)