Match Analysis: Vermont Catamounts vs Liberty Flames – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 6:30 PM UTC
- Location: Patrick Gym, Burlington, VT
Game Overview
The Vermont Catamounts host the Liberty Flames in a non-conference NCAA men's basketball matchup. Both teams enter with strong records, Vermont at 4-1 and Liberty at 4-0. Liberty is favored by 8.5 points, with the total set at 145.5. The game is part of the Terry's Chocolate ESPN Events Invitational – Adventure Bracket.
Key Factors to Consider
- Liberty has been dominant, averaging 88.5 points per game and winning by large margins, including a 98-46 victory over Carolina University. Vermont has shown resilience, scoring 84.4 points per game, but suffered a narrow 94-90 loss to Buffalo on the road. Vermont's defense has allowed 75.8 points per game, while Liberty's defense has held opponents to 58.5 points per game. Liberty's offense is efficient, shooting 58% from the field and 45% from three, while Vermont shoots 52% from the field and 44% from three.
- Liberty defeated Vermont 71-61 in their last meeting on November 19, 2023. Liberty has won the only previous matchup between these two teams.
- Liberty is missing key players Brett Decker (foot sprain), Colin Porter (undisclosed), and Isaiah Ihnen (knee). Vermont has no reported injuries.
- Liberty is playing without three rotation players, which could impact their depth and offensive production. Vermont is at home, which may provide a slight edge. The game is being played in a neutral-site bracket, but Vermont is listed as the home team.
- Both teams are looking to build momentum for their conference seasons. Liberty is aiming to remain undefeated, while Vermont seeks a statement win over a ranked opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames: -355, Vermont Catamounts: 280 | Liberty Flames | Not available |
| Spread | Liberty Flames: -8.5, Vermont Catamounts: 8.5 | Vermont Catamounts +8.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | over: 145.5, under: 145.5 | Over 145.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames -6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 145.5 -0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 145.5 at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Liberty is favored due to their strong start and offensive efficiency, but Vermont's home advantage and Liberty's injuries create an opportunity for an upset. Vermont is likely to keep the game close, but Liberty's depth and experience should prevail in the end.
Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 82, Vermont Catamounts 74