Match Analysis: Vanderbilt Commodores vs Eastern Kentucky Colonels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Memorial Gymnasium, Nashville, TN
Game Overview
The Vanderbilt Commodores (2-0) host the Eastern Kentucky Colonels (1-1) in an NCAA college basketball matchup. Vanderbilt comes off a strong 105-93 road win over UCF, showing high shooting percentages and solid rebounding. Eastern Kentucky lost their last game 87-79 at home to Western Kentucky, but have demonstrated competitive play and rebounding. The game is expected to have lower scoring than the sportsbook total and features a large spread favoring Vanderbilt at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vanderbilt boasts a 55.9% shooting percentage, good rebounding (33 boards per game), and strong free throw shooting (79.4%). They have a perfect 2-0 record and scored an average of 105 points per game. Eastern Kentucky has a positive rebounding edge (around 45-51 per game), with a 1-1 record, shooting 47.5% from the field in their last game, but only 65% from free throws. Vanderbilt commits fewer turnovers and plays aggressive defense.
- Recent direct matches show Vanderbilt dominant at home against non-AP-ranked teams and Eastern Kentucky struggling against non-conference foes, including multiple first half deficits on Wednesday nights.
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting this game.
- The game takes place at Vanderbilt's Memorial Gymnasium, where Vanderbilt has an excellent home record. Eastern Kentucky has struggled on the road in similar matchups. The large point spread and total points line indicate bookmaker expectations of Vanderbilt dominance but limited scoring overall relative to typical totals.
- Vanderbilt aims to maintain a perfect start and continue dominance at home. Eastern Kentucky looks to rebound from a recent loss and prove competitiveness against a higher profile opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt: -115, Eastern Kentucky: +105 | Vanderbilt win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt: -28.5 (-115), Eastern Kentucky: +28.5 (-105) | Vanderbilt to cover -28.5 points | β β β β β 80% |
| Over/under | Over 170.5: -110, Under 170.5: -110 | Under 170.5 points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 170.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 170.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Vanderbilt is likely to win comfortably, covering the large spread. The game is projected to stay under the 170.5 total points line, reflecting moderately restrained offensive outputs despite Vanderbilt's high scoring potential.
Predicted Score: Vanderbilt 94 – 63 Eastern Kentucky