Match Analysis: Valparaiso Beacons vs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN
Game Overview
Valparaiso Beacons (4-1) host Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles (1-5) in a midweek NCAAB matchup. Valparaiso enters as heavy favorites, riding a three-game win streak and boasting a perfect home record. Southern Indiana has struggled defensively and offensively, with only one win this season and a poor road record. The game is set for a 147.5-point total, with most experts expecting a low-scoring contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Valparaiso averages 70.2 points per game, shooting 39.5% from the field (345th in D-1), but their defense is solid, allowing just 71.6 points per game (34th in turnovers forced). Southern Indiana averages 75.2 points per game but allows 83.3 points per game, ranking near the bottom in defensive efficiency. Southern Indianaβs offense is inconsistent, shooting 43.9% from the field but struggling from three (20%).
- No recent head-to-head data is available, but Valparaiso has won each of its last eight games against Ohio Valley Conference opponents. Southern Indiana has lost each of its last eight day games against non-conference opponents.
- No major injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is being played at Valparaisoβs home court, which has seen low-scoring games recentlyβeach of Valparaisoβs last seven home games against OVC opponents produced 145 or fewer points. The matchup is on ESPN+, with no weather or travel issues expected.
- Valparaiso is motivated to extend their home winning streak and maintain their strong start to the season. Southern Indiana is seeking their second win and hoping to break a losing streak, but their road struggles and defensive lapses are concerning.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso -575, Southern Indiana +425 | Valparaiso | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Valparaiso -9.5 (-115), Southern Indiana +9.5 (-105) | Valparaiso -9.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | Over 147.5 (-112), Under 147.5 (-108) | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso Beacons -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valparaiso is expected to win comfortably, covering the spread and keeping the game under the total. Southern Indianaβs defensive weaknesses and poor road record make it unlikely they will keep pace with Valparaisoβs more balanced team.
Predicted Score: Valparaiso 78, Southern Indiana 67