Match Analysis: Valparaiso Beacons vs Nicholls St Colonels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Valparaiso, IN
Game Overview
The Valparaiso Beacons will host the Nicholls State Colonels in an NCAA Men’s basketball game. Valparaiso has shown mixed form with recent wins and losses, while Nicholls has struggled with more losses than wins. Both teams have similar motivations to improve their records early in the season, with Valparaiso having the home court advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Valparaiso averages 62.5 points per game with a slightly better shooting efficiency (37.3% effective FG) and stronger rebounding (36 total rebounds/game) compared to Nicholls averaging 54 points/game and 33.3% effective FG percentage. Defensively, both teams allow high opponent scoring with Valparaiso conceding 85 points/game and Nicholls 71 points/game. Valparaiso has had better recent results (2 wins in last 5) compared to Nicholls (1 win in last 5).
- There is no previous head-to-head history between Valparaiso Beacons and Nicholls State Colonels, making direct matchup data unavailable. This increases the uncertainty but favors analysis on recent team form and statistics.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of the match.
- Valparaiso enjoys strong home court advantage with a 20-1 record in last 21 home openers, often winning by double digits. Nicholls faces the challenge of poor road opener record and has struggled to score effectively in recent games.
- Valparaiso aims to leverage home advantage to improve their conference standing after a balanced start to the season. Nicholls looks to rebound after a tough start with multiple losses and needs a strong performance to build momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nicholls St Colonels: +105, Valparaiso Beacons: -125 | Valparaiso Beacons to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Nicholls St Colonels: +1.5 -110, Valparaiso Beacons: -1.5 -110 | Valparaiso Beacons to cover -1.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 146.5 -110, Under: 146.5 -110 | Under 146.5 points | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso Beacons 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 24% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 24% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valparaiso Beacons are favored to win the game due to better offensive and rebounding metrics, home court advantage, and recent form. Nicholls State Colonels' lower scoring and shooting efficiency limit their chances despite defensive strengths. The game is expected to be moderately close but with Valparaiso pulling ahead especially in the second half.
Predicted Score: Valparaiso Beacons 75 – Nicholls State Colonels 68