Match Analysis: Valparaiso Beacons vs Nicholls St Colonels – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN
Game Overview
A non-conference NCAA basketball matchup between Valparaiso Beacons (1-1) hosting Nicholls St Colonels (0-2) with Valparaiso favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Valparaiso holds a slight edge in scoring (62.5 PPG vs. 54.0 PPG) and shooting efficiency (37.3% vs 33.3% eFG%). Both teams struggle offensively, but Valparaiso's home court and rebounding (36.0 vs 35.0 rebounds/game) are advantages.
- No recent direct matchups available; however, Valparaiso has won its last five non-conference home games, while Nicholls has struggled on road and Wednesday night games historically.
- No significant injury reports affecting either team have been noted in current information.
- Valparaiso benefits from home crowd momentum and an Athletics-Recreation Center environment where they historically perform well.
- Nicholls seeks first win but are winless (0-2) with two tough losses including a blowout at Kentucky and a close defeat to Eastern Illinois. Valparaiso aims to stabilize season after a blowout loss and one narrow home win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso -125, Nicholls +105 | Valparaiso Beacons | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Valparaiso -1.5 -110, Nicholls +1.5 -110 | Valparaiso Beacons -1.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -110, Under 146.5 -110 | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso Beacons 8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valparaiso Beacons to win moneyline, cover the -1.5 spread, and the game to finish under 146.5 points
Predicted Score: Valparaiso Beacons 68 – Nicholls St Colonels 60