Match Analysis: Valparaiso Beacons vs Bryant Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-16
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Athletics-Recreation Center, Valparaiso, IN
Game Overview
The Valparaiso Beacons (2-1) host the Bryant Bulldogs (1-2) in an early season NCAAB matchup. Both teams have mixed form with Valparaiso slightly better in overall record and home advantage. The game is expected to be competitive, with Valparaiso favored at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Valparaiso has a 2-1 record, showing slightly better offensive and defensive metrics compared to Bryant's 1-2. Both teams have struggled against the spread recently, each posting a 1-2 ATS record. Offensively, Valparaiso averages about 75 points per game, and Bryant around 71 points per game. Defensively, Valparaiso allows about 77.7 points, while Bryant allows 77.0 points. This suggests a similar defensive level but a slight edge offensively for Valparaiso.
- Limited recent direct matchup data is available, but both teams have similar records against the spread and totals, indicating a balanced matchup with no clear dominance historically.
- No specific injury information is currently reported for either team, suggesting both squads should be near full strength for this game.
- Game played at Valparaiso's home arena gives the Beacons a tangible home-court advantage, including crowd support and travel burden on Bryant. No adverse weather or other external disruptions are reported.
- Valparaiso looks motivated to improve their home record after mixed results, while Bryant aims to recover from a slow start (1-2) and prove competitive on the road. Both teams have incentives to build early-season momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso Beacons: -210, Bryant Bulldogs: 172 | Valparaiso Beacons | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Valparaiso Beacons: -4.5 -110, Bryant Bulldogs: +4.5 -110 | Valparaiso Beacons to cover the -4.5 spread | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 147.5 -110, Under: 147.5 -110 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valparaiso Beacons 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valparaiso Beacons are favored to win based on home advantage, superior recent record, and better offensive output. However, the Bulldogs remain competitive and can keep it close, especially if the spread is covered.
Predicted Score: Valparaiso Beacons 75 – Bryant Bulldogs 69