Match Analysis: Valencia Basket vs Real Madrid – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-11
- Time: 7:30 PM UTC
- Location: Roig Arena
Game Overview
Valencia Basket hosts Real Madrid in a high-stakes Euroleague matchup. Both teams are in strong form, with Real Madrid leading the Liga ACB and Valencia sitting second. The game features a clash of styles, with Real Madrid's balanced attack against Valencia's defensive resilience.
Key Factors to Consider
- Real Madrid is 30-4 in Liga ACB, with a 9-1 record in their last 10 games. Valencia is 25-9, also 9-1 in their last 10. Both teams are peaking at the right time, but Real Madrid has a slight edge in consistency and depth.
- Real Madrid leads the all-time series 58-23, with a recent trend of close games. In the last 5 meetings, Real Madrid has won 4, but Valencia has covered the spread in 4 of those. The average points scored in H2H is 84.0 for Real Madrid and 79.1 for Valencia.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Both squads are at full strength, which favors Real Madrid's deeper rotation.
- The game is played at Roig Arena, a tough venue for visitors. However, Real Madrid has a strong road record and recent success in this matchup.
- Both teams are fighting for top seeding in the Euroleague. Real Madrid is chasing the top spot, while Valencia aims to close the gap. The stakes are high, and both teams are highly motivated.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -130 | Real Madrid | β β β β β 74% |
| Spread | -115 | Real Madrid -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | -110 | Over 177.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Real Madrid 6% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 177.5 15% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 177.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Real Madrid to win and cover the spread, with the game going over the total points.
Predicted Score: 89-88