Match Analysis: Valencia Basket vs Fenerbahce SK – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-28
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Roig Arena
Game Overview
Valencia Basket hosts Fenerbahce SK in a tightly contested EuroLeague matchup. Both teams have similar recent form and identical 3-3 records, suggesting a balanced contest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Valencia and Fenerbahce both sit at 3-3 in Euroleague group play with comparable recent performances; Valencia has a 1-game losing streak, Fenerbahce a 2-game winning streak. Offensive and defensive efficiency are closely matched.
- In last six EuroLeague meetings, results have been split: Valencia won 4, Fenerbahce 2. Notably, Fenerbahce dominated the most recent large-margin victory in March 2024 (118-88), but Valencia has generally competed well at home.
- No current significant injuries reported impacting starting lineups for either team, implying both can field their strongest squads.
- The game is at Valencia's home arena, Roig Arena, which provides a moderate home court advantage. Travel and scheduling do not indicate fatigue issues for either side.
- Both teams are motivated to improve position early in the EuroLeague group phase, with Valencia seeking to leverage home advantage and Fenerbahce building momentum from recent wins.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valencia Basket: -130, Fenerbahce SK: 105 | Valencia Basket | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Valencia Basket -1.5: -115, Fenerbahce SK +1.5: -110 | Valencia Basket -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 174.5: -110, Under 174.5: -110 | Over 174.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Valencia Basket -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 174.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 174.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Valencia Basket moneyline (win) at -130 offers better value given home advantage, balanced recent form, and H2H edge at home
Predicted Score: Valencia Basket 89 – 82 Fenerbahce SK