Match Analysis: Utah Utes vs Sam Houston St Bearkats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 16, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Salt Lake City, UT (Utah home game)
Game Overview
Utah Utes host Sam Houston State Bearkats in an NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Utah enters as a heavy favorite with strong recent performance, while Sam Houston seeks to pull off a significant upset. The Utes have established dominance in the series historically, winning their last matchup decisively.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah averages 87.7 points per game with a +10.0 point scoring margin, ranking #66 nationally in offensive output. Sam Houston averages 77.0 points per game with a -21.0 point scoring margin, ranking #149 nationally. Utah demonstrates superior first-half performance (44.7 PPG) while Sam Houston struggles defensively, allowing 98.0 PPG. Utah's defensive prowess is evident with a -10.0 opponent scoring margin compared to Sam Houston's -21.0 disadvantage.
- Utah leads the all-time series 1-0 against Sam Houston. In their previous matchup on November 17, 2022, Utah won 65-55 at home in Salt Lake City. This historical advantage favors Utah entering tonight's contest.
- No current injury information available from provided sources.
- This is a non-conference game early in the season (November 16). Utah maintains home court advantage with a strong home environment. The significant odds disparity (-1050 for Utah) indicates professional oddsmakers heavily favor the Utes.
- Utah seeks to maintain momentum and offensive efficiency. Sam Houston faces an uphill battle but has motivation to prove competitiveness against a stronger opponent and gain quality non-conference experience.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah: -1050 | Sam Houston: +660 | Utah Utes ML | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Utah -12.5 (-114) | Sam Houston +12.5 (-106) | Utah -12.5 | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 (-110) | Under 156.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Utes -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 156.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 156.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah Utes are heavily favored to win this matchup. The combination of superior offensive output, stronger defensive metrics, home court advantage, historical head-to-head success, and significant oddsmaker consensus all point to a Utah victory. Sam Houston's defensive vulnerabilities (allowing 98.0 PPG) will be exploited by Utah's efficient offense. Expect Utah to control the game from start to finish, with the Utes pulling away in the second half where they average 40.3 PPG while holding opponents to 35.7 PPG.
Predicted Score: Utah 78, Sam Houston 62