Match Analysis: Utah State Aggies vs UTEP Miners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Dee Glen Smith Spectrum, Logan, Utah
Game Overview
The undefeated Utah State Aggies (3-0) host the UTEP Miners (2-1) in a Mountain West conference matchup. Utah State enters this game seeking their fourth consecutive victory while UTEP looks to bounce back after a 71-58 road loss to Loyola Marymount. This represents UTEP's first road game of the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Utah State has dominated opponents through three games, shooting 51.8% from the field (39th nationally) and averaging 91.0 points per game while forcing opponents into 68.0 points per game. The Aggies rank 39th in field goal percentage and 17th in assists (21.7 per game). UTEP averages 88.0 points per game with solid defensive metrics (66.0 PPG allowed, 42.2% opponent FG%), but two of their three opponents have been from lower divisions. The Miners shoot 50% overall and 39.2% from three, showing offensive balance. Utah State's offensive efficiency advantage is substantial, while UTEP's defense is respectable but untested against quality competition.
- No prior matchup history available in provided data. This appears to be a non-conference or infrequent matchup.
- No injury information provided in available search results.
- The game occurs at Utah State's home venue in Logan, providing a significant home-court advantage. Both teams have similar adjusted tempos (UTEP 71.1 at 199th nationally, Utah State 71.8 at 148th nationally), suggesting a moderately-paced game that may favor lower scoring. The combined adjusted tempos indicate a strong likelihood for under-scoring outcomes.
- Utah State is highly motivated to maintain their undefeated record and secure a fourth consecutive victory. UTEP is playing their first road game and seeks redemption after a disappointing loss at home to Loyola Marymount as a betting favorite.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah State -3500 | UTEP +1200 | Utah State Aggies | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | Utah State -17.5 -110 | UTEP +17.5 -110 | Utah State covers -17.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 152.5 -110 | Under 152.5 -110 | Under 152.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Utah State's superior offensive efficiency, perfect 3-0 record, home-court advantage, and established offensive system give them a commanding edge. UTEP's lack of road experience and recent loss represent concerns. However, the Miners' solid defensive metrics and scoring ability could keep the game closer than the oddsmakers suggest. Utah State should win convincingly, though UTEP may stay within striking distance for stretches.
Predicted Score: Utah State 84, UTEP 69