Match Analysis: Utah Jazz vs Indiana Pacers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 11, 2025
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: Delta Center, Salt Lake City, Utah
Game Overview
The Indiana Pacers (1-9) travel to face the Utah Jazz (3-7) in a matchup between two struggling teams. The Pacers enter on a four-game losing streak with the worst record in the league, while the Jazz have lost three straight. This contest features a tight spread of -2.5 for Indiana, reflecting the competitive nature of the matchup despite the Pacers' slight favorability.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Pacers are in free fall, losing 9 of their last 10 games and averaging just 107.6 points on 39.6% shooting while allowing 118.7 points on 46.2% shooting. The Jazz rank 25th in both offensive (112.2 PPG) and defensive (120.1 PPG) efficiency. However, the Jazz have defensive strength in rebounding (4th in the league at 48.1 RPG) and maintain strong assist numbers (9th, 27.5 APG). The Pacers have standout individual performances from Bennedict Mathurin (31 PPG, 7 RPG) and Pascal Siakam (24.3 PPG, 7.9 RPG), though team efficiency remains poor.
- No recent head-to-head historical data provided in available sources. This is the first matchup consideration of the season between these teams.
- T.J. McConnell (hamstring) and Taelon Peter (groin) are both listed as questionable for the Pacers. These potential absences could further impact Indiana's already-struggling offense and ball-handling, particularly if McConnell remains unavailable.
- The game is played in Salt Lake City, giving the Jazz a home-court advantage. The Jazz have shown resilience at home (2-2 record) despite overall struggles. The Pacers are 0-5 on the road, indicating severe travel and away-game struggles.
- Both teams are desperate to stop losing streaks, but the Pacers' catastrophic road record (0-5) versus the Jazz's home viability (2-2) creates psychological momentum advantages for Utah. The Jazz face an opponent in true freefall, providing an opportunity to build confidence at home.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pacers -135 / Jazz +114 | Utah Jazz ML +114 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Pacers -2.5 (-105) / Jazz +2.5 (-115) | Utah Jazz +2.5 (-115) | β β β ββ 62% |
| Over/under | Over 231.5 (-108) / Under 231.5 (-112) | Under 231.5 (-112) | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Utah Jazz 20% |
| Spread | Utah Jazz 2.5 19% |
| Over/Under | Under 231.5 0% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Utah Jazz at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Utah Jazz will cover the +2.5 spread against the Indiana Pacers. While the Pacers are technically favored by sportsbooks, the Jazz's home-court advantage, superior defensive rebounding, and significantly better home record (2-2) outweigh Indiana's individual star power. The Pacers' 0-5 road record is unsustainable and represents a critical vulnerability that the Jazz will exploit.
Predicted Score: Utah Jazz 115, Indiana Pacers 112