Match Analysis: UT-Arlington Mavericks vs Missouri St Bears – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: College Park Center, Arlington, TX
Game Overview
Missouri State Bears (2-1) travel to face UT-Arlington Mavericks (2-1) in a Conference USA vs WAC matchup. Both teams enter with identical records, but divergent recent trajectories. Missouri State suffered a road loss to Arkansas State following a home win, while UT-Arlington has demonstrated dominance at home with a 14-18 record against non-AP-ranked opponents at College Park Center.
Key Factors to Consider
- UT-Arlington showed explosive offensive capability, defeating UNT Dallas 91-40 with Raysean Seamster leading at 17 points and 15 rebounds. Missouri State imploded against Arkansas State, getting outrebounded 38-31, losing the paint battle 44-34, committing 11 turnovers, and shooting only 73% from the free throw line (27-37). Missouri State has lost each of its last seven road games following a home loss, establishing a clear negative trend.
- Historical matchup on February 23rd shows UT-Arlington won 67-57 as -7.5 favorites, indicating UT-Arlington's home court advantage is substantial. UT-Arlington has won 14 of 18 games at home against non-AP-ranked opponents.
- No significant injuries reported for either team.
- UT-Arlington plays at home with a strong home court record. Missouri State's recent performance collapse and propensity to lose on the road following home losses creates a significant disadvantage. UT-Arlington has shown the ability to control games from the opening tip.
- UT-Arlington seeks to build on a dominant home victory. Missouri State faces pressure to avoid extending their road loss streak and recover from a disappointing loss to Arkansas State.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UT-Arlington -155 / Missouri State +130 | UT-Arlington Mavericks | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | UT-Arlington -2.5 -115 / Missouri State +2.5 -105 | UT-Arlington -2.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -108 / Under 146.5 -112 | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 66% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UT-Arlington Mavericks 18% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: UT-Arlington Mavericks at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UT-Arlington Mavericks will defeat Missouri State Bears in a relatively controlled home victory. The combination of home court dominance, Missouri State's documented road struggles following home losses, and UT-Arlington's recent dominant performance creates a high-confidence play favoring the home team.
Predicted Score: UT-Arlington 74, Missouri State 68