Match Analysis: UNLV Rebels vs Saint Joseph's Hawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 3:00 AM UTC
- Location: Thomas & Mack Center, Las Vegas, NV
Game Overview
The UNLV Rebels host the Saint Joseph's Hawks in a key mid-major non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. Both teams have 2-2 records and have struggled defensively, leading to an expectation of a fast-paced, high-scoring game. UNLV is favored heavily at home and is known for their transition scoring and high pace, while Saint Joseph's has had difficulty shooting efficiently and defending opposing field goal percentage.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNLV is averaging about 91.75 points per game with a high tempo (48th in pace) and excellent offensive rebounding. Their defense is weak, allowing around 47% shooting, ranking low nationally, which has contributed to an over hitting in every game. Saint Joseph's averages 73.5 points per game with poor shooting efficiency and ranks 232nd in opposing FG%. They are 1-3 against the spread this season and 0-2 ATS on the road, showing some struggles away from home.
- There is no recent direct head-to-head data available for this matchup in 2025, but trends indicate UNLVβs style of play (fast pace, transition scoring) matches up well against Saint Joseph's weaker defense. UNLV has better home performance and spreads records compared to Saint Joseph's on the road.
- No significant injury reports available for either team as of current live data. Both teams appear to have their key players available.
- Playing at home in Las Vegas's Thomas & Mack Center gives UNLV a distinct advantage. Fan support and familiarity with the venue play in favor of UNLV. Saint Joseph's has struggled on the road, which could be a decisive factor.
- UNLV seeks to maintain momentum with a 2-2 start and capitalize on home court against a visiting team coming off back-to-back losses. Saint Joseph's is motivated to rebound from recent losses including an upset loss to Penn, but inconsistency on offense and defense may hamper their effort.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -520, away: 385 | UNLV Moneyline Win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | home: -120, away: -102 | UNLV -8.5 Cover | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | over: -110, under: -110 | Over 159.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels 303% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 159.5 30% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: UNLV Rebels at 303% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 78.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The prediction favors UNLV to win comfortably by more than 8.5 points with a moderately high confidence due to their stronger home performance, superior pace, and better offensive metrics. The over on a 159.5 total is also strongly favored given both teams' defensive weaknesses and recent scoring patterns.
Predicted Score: UNLV Rebels 83 – Saint Joseph's Hawks 72