Match Analysis: UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs East Carolina Pirates – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-19
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Raiford G. Trask Coliseum, Wilmington
Game Overview
The NCAA Basketball matchup features the UNC Wilmington Seahawks hosting the East Carolina Pirates. Both teams enter the game with recent records of 2-1. UNC Wilmington Seahawks have a slight edge based on past performance and home court advantage. The game odds show UNC Wilmington as favorites on the moneyline and spread, while the total points over/under is set near 145.5. Historical matchups and recent form favor the Seahawks, though East Carolina remains competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNC Wilmington has an 8-2 record overall against East Carolina recently and is 11-1 SU in the last 12 games at home against them. The Seahawks show stronger defensive and scoring metrics, with an average points per game around 75.5 versus East Carolina's 70. East Carolina struggles on the road with a 1-4 SU record in the last five away games and 1-5-1 ATS, indicating vulnerability away from home.
- In the last head-to-head matchups, UNC Wilmington holds the advantage with a 67-53 victory in December 2024 and a 70-71 close win as recently as November 13, 2025. UNC Wilmington consistently covers the spread against East Carolina, especially at home, showing strong matchup control.
- East Carolina Pirates have notable injuries including Jordan Riley (illness) and Trevion LaBeaux (lower body), which could impact their rotation and effectiveness. UNC Wilmington has no major reported injuries ahead of this match, giving them a fitness advantage.
- Home venue advantage at Raiford G. Trask Coliseum benefits UNC Wilmington, as travel and crowd support typically favor the home side. The game timing is late night UTC but aligns with routine college basketball schedules, minimizing fatigue or disruption risks. Odds movement shows more confidence from bookmakers towards UNC Wilmington.
- UNC Wilmington appears motivated to maintain their strong home dominance and improve their record. East Carolina, despite recent challenges on the road, will seek to disrupt the Seahawks and gain an away win but face uphill odds given team fitness and historical trends.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -265, away: 200 | UNC Wilmington Seahawks win | β β β β β 76% |
| Spread | home: -6.5 -108, away: +6.5 -118 | UNC Wilmington Seahawks -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | over: 145.5 -112, under: 145.5 -114 | Under 145.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNC Wilmington Seahawks -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 145.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 145.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNC Wilmington Seahawks are predicted to win this game decisively based on superior recent form, head-to-head dominance, home advantage, and injury status of the opposition. The forecast favors UNC Wilmington to cover the spread and the total points scored to lean slightly under the set line.
Predicted Score: UNC Wilmington Seahawks 75 – East Carolina Pirates 68