Match Analysis: UNC Asheville Bulldogs vs Tennessee St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Kimmel Arena, Asheville, NC
Game Overview
The UNC Asheville Bulldogs will host the Tennessee State Tigers in an NCAA Men’s basketball game. Both teams enter with a 2-3 record. UNC Asheville plays at home with a 2-3 record but a 2-0 home record, while Tennessee State is 2-3 overall but struggling with road wins and currently on a losing streak in away games. The Bulldogs have shown stronger defensive and offensive forms at home, while the Tigers have had larger losses on the road recently.
Key Factors to Consider
- UNC Asheville has demonstrated decent home performance with two wins at Kimmel Arena, including a recent 92-54 blowout victory. Tennessee State has had difficulty winning on the road, suffering a recent heavy 89-60 defeat. Both teams have similar season records (2-3), but Asheville’s home advantage and ability to score efficiently give them the edge. Tennessee State’s key player, Aaron Nkrumah, averages 18.6 points per game with strong shooting percentages.
- The head-to-head history is limited but suggests competitiveness with no decisive dominance. Recent records indicate UNC Asheville tends to perform better at home against Tennessee State, though exact recent H2H games are sparse.
- No significant injury reports are currently available for either team, indicating lineups are likely at full strength going into this game.
- The match takes place at Asheville’s home arena, giving UNC Asheville significant home crowd support. There is no noted external disruption such as travel issues or adverse weather.
- Tennessee State is motivated to secure their first road win after several recent losses. UNC Asheville aims to build on home success and maintain their winning streak at Kimmel Arena, making this a critical game for both teams’ early-season momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee St Tigers: 190, UNC Asheville Bulldogs: -230 | UNC Asheville Bulldogs | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Tennessee St Tigers: -6.5 -112, UNC Asheville Bulldogs: +6.5 -108 | UNC Asheville Bulldogs -6.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 154.5 -108, Under: 154.5 -112 | Under 154.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UNC Asheville Bulldogs -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 154.5 14% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 154.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UNC Asheville Bulldogs are predicted to win based on stronger home performance, odds favoring them on moneyline and spread, and overall team form. The predicted margin surpasses the spread line of 6.5 points.
Predicted Score: UNC Asheville Bulldogs 80 – Tennessee St Tigers 70