Match Analysis: UConn Huskies vs Columbia Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-10
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Harry A. Gampel Pavilion, Storrs, Connecticut
Game Overview
The No. 4-ranked UConn Huskies (2-0), coming off blowout wins against New Haven and UMass Lowell, host the Columbia Lions (1-0), who started their season with a solid road victory. UConn is a heavy favorite, riding strong team performance and home-court advantage, while Columbia looks to stay competitive with solid ball movement and midrange shooting but lacks the Huskies' depth and athleticism.
Key Factors to Consider
- UConn has dominated its early schedule, winning both games comfortably with high-scoring performances. Their defense and pace are formidable, especially at home. Columbia, while efficient in their opener (55.1% FG), faces a significant step up in competition; their road record against the spread was poor last year (2-10-0), and their turnover rate (16 in the opener) could be costly against UConn’s pressure.
- Recent head-to-head data is not available, but UConn’s current form and quality are substantially superior. Columbia has little recent experience competing against top-25 teams, especially on the road.
- No significant injuries reported for either team ahead of this game.
- The game is at UConn’s home arena, where crowd support should further bolster the Huskies’ performance. Both teams are healthy and have had full preparation time.
- UConn is highly motivated to maintain its top-5 ranking and continue building momentum early in the season. Columbia, as a heavy underdog, will aim to gain experience and potentially keep the game respectable early.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn -32.5 (-110), Columbia +32.5 (-110)[1] | UConn covers the spread | 70% (UConn’s recent ATS trends are mixed, but they have the talent edge and should win comfortably). Columbia’s poor road ATS record and turnover issues increase confidence in a Huskies cover despite the large line. |
| Over/under | Over 155.5 (-110), Under 155.5 (-110) | Over likely hits, but with less certainty than the spread | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 155.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 155.5 at 15% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UConn is predicted to win convincingly, with advanced metrics giving them a 97.6% win probability[3]. Columbia may compete early with ball movement and solid shooting, but UConn's depth, interior dominance, and transition offense will likely break the game open by the second half[4]. The spread and total reflect the expected gap in quality.
Predicted Score: UConn 92, Columbia 59
