Match Analysis: UCLA Bruins vs Sacramento St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 18, 2025
- Time: 3:30 AM UTC
- Location: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, California
Game Overview
UCLA Bruins, ranked #20 in the nation, host Sacramento State Hornets in a non-conference matchup at Pauley Pavilion. This game represents a significant mismatch in terms of program prestige and current performance, with UCLA as a heavy favorite against the visiting Hornets. The Bruins are expected to control the game from start to finish against a Sacramento State team that has shown inconsistency early in the season.
Key Factors to Consider
- UCLA enters as a ranked program with solid early-season form, while Sacramento State has compiled a mixed 3-2 record through their first five games (wins over Dominican California, Jessup California, and Presbyterian; losses to UC Santa Barbara and UC Davis). The Hornets' inconsistent play against mid-tier competition suggests they will struggle significantly against a ranked UCLA squad competing at home.
- No recent head-to-head history is available in the provided data, indicating this is either a rare matchup or the teams have not met in recent seasons. This eliminates historical trends as a factor in the analysis.
- No injury information is provided in the available data for either team. Both rosters appear to be at full or near-full strength for this contest.
- UCLA plays at home at Pauley Pavilion, providing a significant home-court advantage. Sacramento State is traveling to Los Angeles for an away game, dealing with travel fatigue and a hostile environment. The 28.5-point spread reflects the massive disparity in program quality and current form.
- UCLA seeks to maintain momentum as a ranked team with tournament aspirations. Sacramento State faces a challenging non-conference road test that offers little reward but significant risk to their record. The Hornets' primary motivation may be simply competing respectably against a superior opponent.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCLA -10000 | Sacramento St +3000 | UCLA Bruins Moneyline | β β β β β 99% |
| Spread | UCLA -28.5 -110 | Sacramento St +28.5 -110 | UCLA -28.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 144.5 -115 | Under 144.5 -105 | Under 144.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCLA Bruins -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 144.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 144.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UCLA Bruins are expected to decisively defeat Sacramento State Hornets with a comfortable victory margin. The combination of home-court advantage, superior talent, ranked status, and Sacramento State's inconsistent play creates an overwhelming advantage for the Bruins. Expect UCLA to control both halves and build a substantial lead.
Predicted Score: UCLA 82, Sacramento State 51