Match Analysis: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs Loyola Marymount Lions – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-18
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: The Thunderdome, UC Santa Barbara
Game Overview
The matchup features undefeated Loyola Marymount Lions (5-0) on the road facing the also undefeated UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (3-0) at home. Both teams exhibit strong offensive capabilities with Loyola Marymount averaging 93 points per game and shooting nearly 55% from the floor and 42% from three-point range. UC Santa Barbara counters with solid offense averaging around 91.7 points per game on 50% shooting and a stout defense allowing about 76 points per game.
Key Factors to Consider
- Loyola Marymount is 5-0 with high shooting efficiency (54.9%) and strong 3P shooting (42.3%). UC Santa Barbara is 3-0, showing good offensive balance and strong rebounding (34 total in last game). Both teams have low turnovers (~10 per game) but UCSB commits slightly more fouls.
- Limited recent H2H data available, but UCSB's home court and past small-margin wins suggest a competitive rivalry. Prior margins are generally close.
- No significant injury reports affecting key players on either side before the game.
- Game at UCSBβs Thunderdome gives Gauchos home-court advantage, playing a late local time which benefits UCSB. Both teams motivated by maintaining undefeated status early in the season.
- Both are undefeated and focused, but UCSB has a slight edge in motivation leveraging home advantage to remain unbeaten. Loyola Marymount aims to extend their perfect start on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Santa Barbara: -165, Loyola Marymount: +135 | UC Santa Barbara | β β β β β 72% |
| Spread | UC Santa Barbara -3.5 (-110), Loyola Marymount +3.5 (-110) | UC Santa Barbara -3.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 (-105), Under 146.5 (-115) | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Santa Barbara Gauchos -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 10% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos to cover the spread and win outright with a total score slightly under the projected total.
Predicted Score: UC Santa Barbara Gauchos 80 – Loyola Marymount Lions 73