Match Analysis: UC San Diego Tritons vs Idaho Vandals – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: LionTree Arena, La Jolla, CA
Game Overview
The UC San Diego Tritons (3-0) host the Idaho Vandals (2-1) in an early-season NCAA basketball matchup with UC San Diego favored by 8.5 points. The Tritons have a strong home record and superior recent form, while Idaho has struggled on the road, especially in day games against Big West opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC San Diego is unbeaten at home with three wins and averaged about 78 points per game, while Idaho is 2-1 with inconsistent play, having lost close games on the road. UC San Diego has a +11.5 average score margin versus Idahoβs +1.0. Both teams score around 78-79 points per game, but UC San Diego allows fewer points defensively.
- Recent results show UC San Diego with an edge, including a close 78-74 victory vs Idaho earlier this season. Idaho has lost its last four road day games against Big West opponents, a negative trend against UCSD.
- No significant injuries reported for either team impacting starters or key rotation players, suggesting both squads at near full strength.
- UC San Diego benefits from strong home court advantage, having won their last nine games at LionTree Arena. The Vandals' travel and historical day game struggles likely affect performance negatively.
- UC San Diego is motivated to maintain their unbeaten home start and establish dominance in the conference, whereas Idaho seeks to prove themselves away but has shown recent vulnerabilities in hostile environments.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC San Diego Tritons: -350, Idaho Vandals: +280 | UC San Diego Tritons | β β β β β 79% |
| Spread | UC San Diego Tritons: -8.5 -105, Idaho Vandals: +8.5 -115 | UC San Diego Tritons -8.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 150.5 -110, Under: 150.5 -110 | Under 150.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC San Diego Tritons -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 150.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 150.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC San Diego Tritons to win straight up and cover the spread, with a game total going under the 150.5 points line.
Predicted Score: UC San Diego Tritons 78 – Idaho Vandals 68