Match Analysis: UC Riverside Highlanders vs North Dakota Fighting Hawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: Saturday, November 15, 2025
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: SRC Arena, Riverside, California
Game Overview
UC Riverside Highlanders (2-1) host North Dakota Fighting Hawks (1-3) in a non-conference matchup. UC Riverside enters as 5.5-point favorites with strong home court performance, while North Dakota arrives on a rough stretch, having lost 10 of their last 11 non-conference games.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC Riverside: 2-1 record with dominant offensive performance (90-49 win over La Sierra). Strong home splits: 2-0 ATS in road games, 2-0 ATS in last 2 games. Won last 9 home games vs non-AP-ranked opponents at SRC Arena. Last season ranked 143rd in offensive efficiency (74.8 PPG) but has shown improvement early this season. North Dakota: 1-3 record, struggling significantly. 1-11 SU in last 12 road games, 4-14 SU in last 18 underdog situations. Last season defensive issues (18th-worst, 79.5 PPG allowed) remain problematic.
- UC Riverside defeated North Dakota 74-70 on November 7, 2025 (8 days ago). In that matchup, UC Riverside shot 57.1% from field, 81.5% from three-point range (22-27), dominated rebounding 31-26. Marqui Worthy led with 23 points, 7 rebounds, 3 assists. Osiris Grady added 19 points, 6 rebounds in 45 minutes.
- No significant injuries reported for either team in available data.
- Game played on neutral court (SRC Arena favors UC Riverside as home team). UC Riverside won first half in each of last 4 home games vs Summit League opponents. North Dakota has significant travel fatigue (1-11 on road). Public betting split 50-50 between teams on money percentage.
- UC Riverside: Strong home court advantage, recent confidence from dominant win. Facing struggling opponent creates high-probability scenario. North Dakota: Desperate to break losing streak, but severe road struggles and recent head-to-head loss suggest limited motivation edge.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Dakota +215 / UC Riverside -265 | UC Riverside Highlanders | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | UC Riverside -5.5 -110 / North Dakota +5.5 -110 | UC Riverside -5.5 | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 146.5 -114 / Under 146.5 -106 | Under 146.5 | β β β ββ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Riverside Highlanders 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 146.5 13% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 146.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Riverside Highlanders will dominate North Dakota Fighting Hawks. The Highlanders' superior offensive efficiency, dominant home court record (9-game win streak at SRC vs non-AP teams), and recent head-to-head victory combine with North Dakota's abysmal road record (1-11 in last 12 games) to create a high-confidence home win. UC Riverside should control both halves and win comfortably.
Predicted Score: UC Riverside 82, North Dakota 75