Match Analysis: UC Irvine Anteaters vs New Mexico St Aggies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 1:30 AM UTC
- Location: Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya
Game Overview
The New Mexico State Aggies (4-0) visit the UC Irvine Anteaters (3-3) with both teams looking to assert dominance early in the season. UC Irvine is the favorite at home, favored by 4.5 points in a game with an over/under set at 141.5. New Mexico State has a perfect record so far, while UC Irvine is coming off a mixed start with 3 wins and 3 losses.
Key Factors to Consider
- New Mexico State is undefeated (4-0) showing strong form and momentum, while UC Irvine is 3-3 with recent struggles including a poor covering record against the spread (0-4 in last 5 ATS). UC Irvine has home-court advantage.
- Specific recent head-to-head stats are not detailed, but New Mexico State has shown consistency, while UC Irvine has faltered versus the spread and on the road.
- No specific injury reports available; both teams expected to field full or near-full rosters.
- Game location at Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya provides a neutral-ish but home-likely environment for UC Irvine. Public betting heavily favors UC Irvine (100% of bets, 0% money on New Mexico State), suggesting strong public confidence but potential bookmaker caution.
- New Mexico State aims to extend their undefeated streak and prove strength on the road. UC Irvine seeks to solidify their record at home and bounce back from inconsistent performances.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico St Aggies: +142, UC Irvine Anteaters: -170 | UC Irvine Anteaters win | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | New Mexico St Aggies: +4.5 at -115, UC Irvine Anteaters: -4.5 at -105 | UC Irvine Anteaters -4.5 cover | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over: 141.5 at -105, Under: 141.5 at -115 | Over 141.5 points | β β β ββ 54% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Irvine Anteaters -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 141.5 5% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 141.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Backing UC Irvine to win and cover the 4.5 spread with a moderately high confidence, considering home advantage and odds movement favoring them despite New Mexico State's undefeated record.
Predicted Score: UC Irvine Anteaters 74 – New Mexico State Aggies 67