Match Analysis: UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
Game Overview
This is a non-conference matchup between UC Davis Aggies and Sacramento State Hornets, part of the annual Causeway Classic. Both teams enter with 2-1 records, making this a competitive early-season contest. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+ and is expected to feature a strong home crowd for UC Davis.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC Davis has shown solid offensive efficiency, ranking 282nd in field goal percentage (42.8%) and 230th in opponent field goal percentage (44.7%). Sacramento State is slightly less efficient, ranking 336th in field goal percentage (41.3%) but 118th in opponent field goal percentage (42.9%). UC Davis also leads in rebounding (31.2 RPG vs 29.8 RPG) and forces more turnovers (14.1 per game vs 12.7). Sacramento State has a slight edge in turnover margin, but UC Davis appears to have a more balanced and disciplined team.
- Last season, UC Davis defeated Sacramento State 69-62 in Sacramento. The Aggies have won the last two meetings in the Causeway Classic, indicating a recent edge in this rivalry.
- No major injuries have been reported for either team as of the latest updates. Both squads are expected to field their full starting lineups.
- The game is being played at UC Davis, giving the Aggies a significant home-court advantage. The University Credit Union Center is known for its energetic atmosphere, especially during rivalry games. The matchup is part of the Causeway Classic, which adds extra intensity and motivation for both teams.
- This is a rivalry game, and both teams are looking to build momentum early in the season. UC Davis is coming off a strong non-conference start and will be motivated to continue their winning ways at home. Sacramento State will be eager to avenge last season's loss and prove they can compete with top conference teams.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sacramento St Hornets: 190, UC Davis Aggies: -240 | UC Davis Aggies | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Sacramento St Hornets: 5.5 -114, UC Davis Aggies: -5.5 -106 | UC Davis Aggies -5.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 149.5 -118, Under: 149.5 -106 | Over 149.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 149.5 2% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 149.5 at 2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Davis is favored to win this matchup due to their superior offensive efficiency, rebounding, and home-court advantage. The Aggies have a recent edge in the rivalry and are expected to control the pace and physicality of the game. Sacramento State will likely keep it close, but UC Davis should pull away in the second half.
Predicted Score: UC Davis Aggies 78, Sacramento State Hornets 71