Match Analysis: UC Davis Aggies vs Sacramento St Hornets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 2:00 AM UTC
- Location: University Credit Union Center, Davis, CA
Game Overview
This NCAA basketball matchup features the UC Davis Aggies hosting the Sacramento State Hornets. UC Davis enters as the favorite with a moderate points spread and moneyline advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- UC Davis has demonstrated stronger recent form with a 63% win probability based on simulations, while Sacramento State is the underdog with about 37% chances. UC Davis also won the last encounter 69-62.
- Over the last six meetings, Sacramento State has won four; however, UC Davis claimed the most recent matchup relatively comfortably.
- No significant injury updates affecting either team have been reported, indicating both sides will likely field near full-strength lineups.
- Home court advantage at University Credit Union Center favors UC Davis. No adverse weather or travel impacts are noted.
- As a home team favorite, UC Davis is motivated to maintain dominance, while Sacramento State aims to exploit a positive spread to boost confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis -240 / Sacramento State +190 | UC Davis Aggies | β β β β β 70% |
| Spread | UC Davis -5.5 (-106) / Sacramento State +5.5 (-114) | Sacramento State +5.5 | β β β ββ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 149.5 (-118) / Under 149.5 (-106) | Under 149.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies -8% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 149.5 7% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 149.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
UC Davis Aggies to win on the moneyline, Sacramento State to cover the +5.5 spread, and the game to go under 149.5 points total.
Predicted Score: Sacramento State 71 – 75 UC Davis