Match Analysis: Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs Austin Peay Governors – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Donald W. Reynolds Center, Tulsa, OK
Game Overview
This NCAAB matchup features the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1) hosting the Austin Peay Governors (3-2) at the Reynolds Center. Tulsa is favored on the moneyline and spread, with a total set at 148.5 points. Both teams have shown offensive capability, but Tulsa has a slight edge in scoring and rebounding, while Austin Peay has struggled defensively and on the road.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tulsa averages 88.3 points per game (128th in D-1) and shoots 47.1% from the field, with 42.3 rebounds per game. They are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 in Over/Under. Austin Peay averages 80.2 points per game (171st), shoots 43.5% from the field, and allows 63.0 points per game (35th in D-1). They are 2-1 ATS but have lost their last three road games. Tulsa has lost five of its last six night games at home, while Austin Peay has lost 42 of its last 47 road night games against non-conference opponents.
- The last meeting was on November 16, 2019, with Tulsa winning 72-65 as a 7.5-point favorite. The total went under 145.5 points.
- No major injuries reported for either team. Myles Rigsby (Tulsa) is listed with an undisclosed status, but no impact is indicated.
- Tulsa has a strong home record and is favored by the public and sharp money. The game is played at night, which historically favors Tulsa in Friday games at home, but Austin Peay has a recent trend of winning road games after a loss. The total is set at 148.5, reflecting a moderate pace.
- Tulsa is motivated to bounce back from a close loss to Kansas State and maintain their home dominance. Austin Peay seeks to end a road losing streak and prove they can compete with higher-level opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Austin Peay Governors: 270, Tulsa Golden Hurricane: -340 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane | Not available |
| Spread | Austin Peay Governors: 7.5 -105, Tulsa Golden Hurricane: -7.5 -115 | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -7.5 | Not available |
| Over/under | Over: 148.5 -105, Under: 148.5 -115 | Under 148.5 | Not available |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 148.5 3% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 148.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tulsa is favored due to their offensive efficiency, rebounding, and home advantage. However, Austin Peay's defensive strength and recent road form after a loss suggest a competitive game. The spread is tight, and the total is moderate, indicating a close contest with Tulsa likely to win by a small margin.
Predicted Score: Tulsa 78, Austin Peay 70