Match Analysis: Troy Trojans vs Toledo Rockets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-24
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Alico Arena, Fort Myers
Game Overview
The Troy Trojans (4-3) host the Toledo Rockets (3-2) in a closely matched NCAA college basketball game. Troy is favored both in the moneyline and spread, with a recent form that includes 3 wins out of their last 5 games and a better performance on the road against the spread. Toledo is on a three-game winning streak, showing resilience especially in non-conference play.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy exhibits strong rebounding (36.57 per game) and solid assists (17.6), but struggles with turnovers (12.71) and inconsistent shooting (around 45% FG). Toledo shoots better from the field (~50%), converts 75% of free throws, and has a balanced defensive profile but slightly weaker rebounding (27.4 per game). The over has hit in three of Troy's last five games.
- Limited recent direct data available, but Troy has a home advantage and is favored by bookmakers. Toledo has momentum with a recent three-game winning streak over non-conference opponents.
- No significant injury reports available for either team at this time.
- Troy benefits from home court advantage at Alico Arena, which reflects in a home advantage rating of #49 overall, while Toledo ranks higher in strength of schedule and competitive ranking (#3). Motivation could be influenced by Troy trying to capitalize on home court and maintain consistency, while Toledo seeks to extend their streak.
- Toledo aims to continue their winning streak against a favored Troy squad, which has shown vulnerability in recent losses. Troy, with a slightly better record and home advantage, looks to assert dominance early and cover the spread.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy: -175, Toledo: +145 | Troy win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Troy: -2.5 (-115), Toledo: +2.5 (-105) | Troy -2.5 cover | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 160.5 (-110), Under: 160.5 (-110) | Over 160.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans 47% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 160.5 9% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Troy Trojans at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans to win a close contest, leveraging home advantage and rebounding edge, with a predicted score around Troy 87, Toledo 82.
Predicted Score: Troy Trojans 87 – Toledo Rockets 82