Match Analysis: Troy Trojans vs St. Francis (PA) Red Flash – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 26, 2025
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: Alico Arena, Fort Myers, FL
Game Overview
Troy Trojans host St. Francis (PA) Red Flash in a heavily lopsided matchup featuring a dominant home team facing one of the weakest teams in college basketball this season. Troy enters at 4-4 while St. Francis PA is winless at 0-5, having suffered multiple blowout losses including a devastating 94-57 defeat to Belmont on Monday. This game represents a massive talent and performance disparity, with Troy favored by over 22 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Troy Trojans have shown competitive ability with a .500 record, including a notable victory over SDSU (108-107). St. Francis PA has been historically poor, failing to win any games while averaging under 67 points per contest. In their most recent loss to Belmont, the Red Flash shot just 33.9% from the field, 20% from three, and committed 16 turnovers while being outrebounded 30-25. This demonstrates fundamental offensive and defensive breakdowns that Troy should easily exploit.
- No previous matchup history available between these programs in recent seasons.
- No specific injury reports available in the provided data for either team.
- The game is played at a neutral site (Alico Arena in Fort Myers) as part of the Coconut Hoops Championship tournament. This eliminates typical home-court advantage benefits, though Troy still maintains superior talent and execution.
- Troy has motivation to build momentum and establish dominance over an inferior opponent. St. Francis PA faces desperation but limited realistic paths to victory given their systematic failures across shooting, ball handling, and rebounding.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy -9000 / St. Francis PA +2500 | Troy Trojans Win | β β β β β 96% |
| Spread | Troy -22.5 (-115) / St. Francis PA +22.5 (-105) | Troy -22.5 (Troy covers the spread) | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over 151.5 (-110) / Under 151.5 (-110) | Under 151.5 | β β β β β 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 151.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 151.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Troy Trojans will decisively defeat St. Francis (PA) Red Flash by a substantial margin. The talent gap is enormous, and St. Francis PA's inability to execute on either end of the floor makes them vulnerable to any competent opponent, let alone one like Troy.
Predicted Score: Troy 87, St. Francis PA 64