Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Youngstown St Penguins – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-20
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Savage Arena, Toledo
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets will host the Youngstown St Penguins in a college basketball matchup. Both teams come into the game with identical 2-2 records. Toledo enters this contest riding a two-game winning streak, including a recent home victory over Detroit Mercy (90-83). Youngstown State lost their last game narrowly on the road (80-84 at St. Bonaventure) but holds the advantage in recent direct confrontations, having won the last head-to-head meeting 93-87.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo Rockets have shown balanced scoring and solid home performances, averaging about 79.5 points per game with a strong finish in recent matches. Youngstown State Penguins have a slightly higher overall points for (344 total) but also concede more points on defense, scoring and allowing 80+ points per game in recent fixtures. Toledo's defensive solidity at home versus Youngstown State's offensive potential is a key factor.
- Youngstown State holds the recent head-to-head advantage, having defeated Toledo 93-87 in their last meeting. Both teams split their current season series and overall are evenly matched with 2-2 records.
- No significant injury reports are currently listed for either Toledo Rockets or Youngstown St Penguins at this time.
- The game takes place at Toledo's home court, Savage Arena, providing the Rockets with a home-court advantage. There are no major external disruptions reported impacting either team. Weather and travel issues are negligible as this is an indoor event with proximity reasonable for Youngstown State.
- Toledo seeks to extend their two-game winning streak and maintain momentum at home. Youngstown State aims to rebound from a narrow loss and assert strength on the road, especially given their recent head-to-head win against Toledo, providing mental confidence.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets: -120, Youngstown St Penguins: +100 | Toledo Rockets to win | β β β ββ 58% |
| Spread | Toledo Rockets: -1.5 -105, Youngstown St Penguins: +1.5 -115 | Toledo Rockets to cover -1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over: 161.5 -110, Under: 161.5 -110 | Over 161.5 total points | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 161.5 18% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 161.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Based on current data and odds, the game is expected to be very competitive but with a slight edge to Toledo at home due to recent form and offensive output. Youngstown State is a strong challenger, likely keeping the game close.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 82 – Youngstown St Penguins 79