Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Marshall Thundering Herd – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Savage Arena, Toledo, OH
Game Overview
The Marshall Thundering Herd (1-0) visit Savage Arena to face the Toledo Rockets (0-1) on November 8, 2025. Marshall is coming off a 78-72 road win against UMass demonstrating efficient shooting, solid rebounds, and strong defense. Toledo lost their season opener at home 74-76 to South Alabama, despite good shooting percentages and rebounding. Both teams show contrasting momentum with Marshall undefeated and Toledo seeking redemption at home.
Key Factors to Consider
- Marshall showed balanced attack and defensive pressure with 48.2% shooting overall, 33.3% from three, and 73.7% from the free-throw line in their last game. They forced 20 turnovers. Toledo, while shooting efficiently (47.3% FG and 45.5% from three), could not close their home game against South Alabama and must improve defensive stops and turnover avoidance.
- Toledo has dominated recent meetings, winning 7 of the last 8 games against Marshall, including two close victories last season by 1 and 10 points. Despite the losing record this season, Toledo's historical edge and home court advantage are significant.
- No reported key injuries or absences for either team that would impact this matchup significantly based on available data.
- The game is at Toledo's Savage Arena, favoring the home team. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+, possibly adding motivation for Toledo to perform well in front of a home crowd.
- Marshall seeks to build on their perfect start and prove they can win on the road against a favored Toledo team. Toledo looks to bounce back quickly from their narrow home defeat and leverage historical dominance over Marshall.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Marshall Thundering Herd: +105, Toledo Rockets: -125 | Toledo Rockets | β β β ββ 62% |
| Spread | Marshall Thundering Herd +1.5: -105, Toledo Rockets -1.5: -115 | Toledo Rockets -1.5 | β β β ββ 58% |
| Over/under | Over 160.5: -108, Under 160.5: -112 | Under 160.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets 10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 160.5 4% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Toledo Rockets at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Taking into account Toledoβs home advantage, historical dominance, and narrow loss rebound potential, Toledo is favored to win but the game is expected to be highly competitive. The spread is close, suggesting a tight contest with Toledo likely covering a -1.5 spread.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 82 – 78 Marshall Thundering Herd