Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Detroit Mercy Titans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Savage Arena, Toledo, Ohio
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets (1-2) host the Detroit Mercy Titans (1-2) at Savage Arena in Toledo, Ohio. Toledo is favored by about 10 points with the total points line set at 161.5. Both teams have started the season with identical records but show contrasting offensive and defensive efficiencies from last season and current trends. Toledo has stronger offensive metrics and home performance, while Detroit Mercy struggles with defense and shooting percentages.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo ranks 55th offensively (around 78.9 points per game) and struggles defensively allowing around 80.2 points per game last year. Detroit Mercy is much weaker offensively (67.1 points per game, 331st in the nation) and concedes 75.9 points per game defensively (292nd). Toledo averages better shooting percentages and fewer turnovers. Toledo has also won 11 straight day games at Savage Arena following a road win, while Detroit Mercy has lost its last 15 road games.
- No recent head-to-head stats were explicitly found in the data, but Toledo has the advantage playing at home and is favored consistently in spread and moneyline bets.
- No injury reports or player absences were mentioned in the available data for either team.
- Toledo's home venue Savage Arena and the game being a day game favor Toledo based on historical performance. Detroit Mercyβs poor road record and low shooting efficiency work against them.
- Both teams look to improve after slow starts, but Toledoβs strong home court record and previous day game wins make their motivation and confidence likely higher. Detroit wants to avoid consecutive road losses and prove defensively stable but is at a disadvantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Mercy Titans: +375, Toledo Rockets: -500 | Toledo Rockets win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Detroit Mercy Titans: +10.5 -115, Toledo Rockets: -10.5 -105 | Toledo Rockets to cover -10.5 points | β β β β β 78% |
| Over/under | Over: 161.5 -105, Under: 161.5 -115 | Under 161.5 points total | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 31% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toledo Rockets are expected to win convincingly and cover the spread. The prediction favors a relatively low scoring game under the total line due to Detroit Mercy's defensive struggles and Toledo's preference towards controlled scoring in home games.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 91 – Detroit Mercy Titans 69