Match Analysis: Toledo Rockets vs Detroit Mercy Titans – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: Savage Arena, Toledo, OH
Game Overview
The Toledo Rockets (1-2) host the Detroit Mercy Titans (1-2) in a matchup where Toledo is favored by 10.5 points. Both teams are struggling early this season, but Toledo holds advantages in home court performance, scoring offense, and defensive efficiency.
Key Factors to Consider
- Toledo averages about 76 points per game, ranking mid-tier nationally, and allows ~77 points defensively. Detroit Mercy averages 67 points per game with weaker defensive metrics, conceding nearly 76 points per game. Toledo won their last game on the road by 10 points, showing better recent form.
- Recent patterns favor Toledo, especially at home where Detroit Mercy has lost their last 15 road games. Toledo has been strong in the daytime home games following road wins, and Detroit Mercy has trended to lose first halves in such contests.
- No significant injuries reported that would impact starters or key rotations for either team.
- Game played in Toledo's Savage Arena with Toledo enjoying strong home attendance and support. Detroit Mercy faces a struggling road environment historically against Toledo.
- Toledo appears motivated to bounce back after early season losses and capitalize at home. Detroit Mercy seeks to end their poor road streak but faces uphill odds given lackluster offensive efficiency.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -500, away: +375 | Toledo Rockets | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | home: -105, away: -115 | Toledo Rockets -10.5 | β β β β β 75% |
| Over/under | over: -105, under: -115 | Under 161.5 | β β β β β 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 161.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 161.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 31.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Toledo Rockets to win moneyline, cover the spread, and the total to go under 161.5 points.
Predicted Score: Toledo Rockets 90, Detroit Mercy Titans 69