Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs UTSA Roadrunners – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Game Overview
The Texas State Bobcats host the UTSA Roadrunners in a non-conference matchup. Both teams are coming off recent losses, with Texas State at 1-2 and UTSA at 1-1. The game is expected to be close, with Texas State favored by a narrow margin. The total points line is set at 147.5, reflecting a moderate pace and defensive tendencies from both sides.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State averages over 75 points per game and shoots efficiently, making over 49% of their shots and 76% of free throws. They excel in rebounding, grabbing over eight offensive rebounds per game. UTSA averages 78.5 points per game but struggled defensively in their last outing, allowing 77 points. UTSA plays at a fast pace (144th-fastest nationally) but has been inconsistent offensively, shooting just 28.2% from the field in their last game. Texas State has allowed only 55 points per game at home this season.
- UTSA holds a 6-4 record in their last 10 meetings with Texas State. The Bobcats won the most recent matchup in 2023, 72-62.
- No injuries have been reported for either team.
- Texas State has a slight edge playing at home, and the venue has seen low-scoring games in recent night matchups against non-conference opponents (seven straight under 134 points). UTSA, however, has seen high-scoring games in their last nine road night games against non-conference opponents (eight of nine over 156 points).
- Texas State is motivated to rebound from a recent loss and capitalize on their home advantage. UTSA seeks to bounce back after a poor shooting performance and prove their offensive capabilities on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats: -115, UTSA Roadrunners: -105 | Texas State Bobcats | β β β ββ 60% |
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats -1.5: 105, UTSA Roadrunners +1.5: -125 | Texas State Bobcats -1.5 | β β β ββ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 147.5: -115, Under 147.5: -105 | Under 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 147.5 27% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 147.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State is favored to win and cover the spread due to their strong offensive rebounding, efficient shooting, and home-court advantage. The total is expected to go under, as Texas State's defense at home and recent trends in night games at Strahan Arena suggest a lower-scoring affair.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 72, UTSA Roadrunners 70