Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Southern Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Strahan Coliseum, San Marcos, TX
Game Overview
A matchup between Texas State Bobcats (2-2) and Texas Southern Tigers (0-3). Texas State enters with a slightly better recent form and strong home performance, while Texas Southern struggles with a significant losing streak and shooting inefficiencies.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State is 2-2 overall but has shown stronger offensive efficiency, averaging 78.3 points per game on 46.9% shooting. Texas Southern is 0-3, shooting 35.3% from three and 61.9% from the free throw line, indicating offensive struggles and defensive vulnerability.
- Recent history favors Texas State with the home team winning the last four games. Texas Southern has lost 25 of its last 26 games against non-Conference opponents.
- No significant injuries reported affecting either team according to available data.
- Game is played at Texas State's home arena, giving them home-court advantage. Texas Stateβs recent day games have been high-scoring, suggesting pace may favor the over.
- Texas State aims to improve to a winning record early in the season and maintain dominance at home. Texas Southern faces pressure to break their losing streak, but recent form suggests a motivational disadvantage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats: -335, Texas Southern Tigers: +265 | Texas State Bobcats | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats: -6.5 -120, Texas Southern Tigers: +6.5 -102 | Texas State Bobcats -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 147.5 -115, Under: 147.5 -105 | Over 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 147.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 147.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Favor Texas State Bobcats to win outright with a moderately confident spread cover. The total points likely lean towards over due to offensive tendencies of Texas State and recent high-scoring day games at the venue.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 79 – 68 Texas Southern Tigers