Match Analysis: Texas State Bobcats vs Texas Southern Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Strahan Arena at the University Events Center, San Marcos, TX
Game Overview
Texas State Bobcats (2-2) host Texas Southern Tigers (0-3) in a non-conference NCAA Men's Basketball matchup. Texas State enters with a slight edge in recent form and is favored at home, while Texas Southern struggles with consistency and poor road performance. The game is expected to be competitive, with Texas State's defense and home-court advantage likely playing a key role.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas State averages 78.3 points per game on 46.9% shooting and allows 71.5 points on 41.4% shooting. Texas Southern shoots 35.3% from three and 61.9% from the free throw line, allowing 35.3% from deep and grabbing 45.5 rebounds per game. Texas State has won the first half in nine of its last 11 games against non-conference opponents at home.
- Texas State has won the last four home games against Texas Southern. Texas Southern has lost 25 of its last 26 games against non-conference opponents, while Texas State has lost five of its last six games against non-conference opponents.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- Texas State enjoys a strong home-court advantage at Strahan Arena, where the home team has won each of their last four games. The game is played on a Saturday evening, which may affect crowd energy and team focus.
- Texas State is motivated to build momentum early in the season and improve their home record. Texas Southern seeks their first win of the season and aims to break a long losing streak against non-conference opponents.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers: 265, Texas State Bobcats: -335 | Texas State Bobcats | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers: 6.5 -102, Texas State Bobcats: -6.5 -120 | Texas State Bobcats -6.5 | β β β β β 70% |
| Over/under | Over: 147.5 -115, Under: 147.5 -105 | Over 147.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 147.5 12% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 147.5 at 12% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas State Bobcats are favored to win this matchup due to their superior recent performance, home-court advantage, and stronger defensive metrics. Texas Southern's struggles on the road and against non-conference opponents make it difficult for them to compete consistently. The game is likely to be decided by Texas State's ability to control the pace and limit Texas Southern's scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: Texas State Bobcats 79, Texas Southern Tigers 70