Match Analysis: Texas Southern Tigers vs Samford Bulldogs – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-13
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Health and Physical Education Arena, Houston, TX
Game Overview
The Samford Bulldogs (1-1) visit the Texas Southern Tigers (0-2) at home. Samford is averaging 77 points per game with decent shooting efficiency and solid rebounding, while Texas Southern struggles offensively, shooting just 37% from the field and scoring 56.5 points per game. Defensively, Texas Southern allows a very high field goal percentage and ranks near the bottom nationally in key defensive metrics. Samford shows better ball movement and shooting but has been inconsistent against tougher non-conference opponents.
Key Factors to Consider
- Samford has a solid offensive profile with 43% shooting and strong perimeter shooting at nearly 40%. They average 35.5 rebounds and 34 assists early this season, showing balanced production. Texas Southern has underperformed offensively and defensively, shooting poorly, committing many turnovers (20 per game), and giving up over 50% shooting to opponents. Texas Southern's defense ranks among the weakest nationally, allowing 101 points per game on average.
- Recent direct matchup data is limited, but Texas Southern has struggled against non-conference opponents with 14 consecutive losses, while Samford historically dominates against similar competition. Texas Southern has a strong home winning trend after road losses, however, and their arena gives a slight home advantage.
- No reported injuries for either team in available data.
- The game is at Texas Southern's home arena which historically boosts their performance after road losses. Public betting is 100% on Texas Southern covering the spread, indicating sharp money or heavy confidence in Tigers' home performance despite Samford being favored.
- Texas Southern seeks its first win after starting 0-2 and will rely on home crowd support and past home success following road losses. Samford, with a 1-1 record, will aim to continue momentum against a weaker defensive team and capitalize on their better shooting and rebounding.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs: -225, Texas Southern Tigers: 185 | Samford Bulldogs to win | β β β β β 75% |
| Spread | Samford Bulldogs: -5.5 -110, Texas Southern Tigers: +5.5 -110 | Samford Bulldogs to cover -5.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -110, Under: 152.5 -110 | Over 152.5 points total | β β β ββ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 152.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 152.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Samford Bulldogs to win, covering the spread (-5.5). Despite Texas Southern's home advantage and history of home bounce-back wins, Samford's more efficient offense and defense issues for Texas Southern point toward a Samford victory.
Predicted Score: Samford Bulldogs 79 – Texas Southern Tigers 70