Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs Lafayette Leopards – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Austin, TX
Game Overview
Texas Longhorns host Lafayette Leopards in a non-conference NCAA matchup. Texas is a heavy favorite, coming off a loss to Duke, while Lafayette bounced back with a dominant win over a Division III opponent. Texas boasts a strong home-opening record, while Lafayette is motivated to prove themselves against a Power 5 team.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas is 0-1 after a 75-60 loss at Duke, showing vulnerability on the road. Lafayette is 1-1, rebounding from a loss to Saint Joseph's with a 79-44 win over Dickinson. Texas averages 60 points per game, Lafayette 77.5. Lafayette's win was against a much weaker opponent, but their scoring pace is higher.
- No recent H2H data available. Texas has a dominant home-opening streak (23 straight wins, 104-15 all-time), but Lafayette has no prior history against Texas.
- No reported injuries for either team.
- Texas is at home, where they are historically strong. Lafayette is on the road, facing a significant step up in competition. Texas is expected to have a large crowd advantage.
- Texas is motivated to bounce back from a loss and start their home schedule strong. Lafayette is motivated to prove doubters wrong and compete with a top-tier program.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -10000, away: 1500 | Texas Longhorns | β β β β β 92% |
| Spread | home: -22.5, away: 22.5 | Lafayette Leopards +22.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
| Over/under | over: 150.5, under: 150.5 | Over 150.5 | β β β ββ 62% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 150.5 16% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 150.5 at 16% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Longhorns to win and cover the spread, but Lafayette will keep the game competitive enough to make the spread a value play on the underdog.
Predicted Score: Texas 78 – Lafayette 62