Match Analysis: Texas Longhorns vs Arizona St Sun Devils – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-25
- Time: 4:30 AM UTC
- Location: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawaii
Game Overview
The Texas Longhorns and Arizona State Sun Devils meet in the first round of the 2025 Southwest Maui Invitational at the historic Lahaina Civic Center. Both teams hold identical 4-1 non-conference records. Texas is known for strong rebounding and defense, while Arizona State plays a fast-paced game prone to turnovers but with strong outside shooting.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas Longhorns emphasize rebounding, ranking ninth nationally with 42.4 rebounds per game, and limiting opponents to 62.6 points per game. Key player Matas Vokietaitis averages 16 points and 7.2 rebounds. Arizona State relies on scoring with averages of 77 points per game but commits 9.2 turnovers per game. Moe Odum leads ASU with 14.8 points and 2.4 made 3-pointers per game at 36.4% shooting.
- Recent head-to-head history is limited at this stage of the season, but both teams have competitive records (4-1) and have performed well in early non-conference matchups. Previous meetings have been close with home court advantage playing a role.
- No specific key injuries reported for either team leading into this matchup from the available data.
- The game is part of a prestigious invitational event in Hawaii, possibly affecting player motivation and travel fatigue. Both teams have comparable rest and preparation time.
- Both teams have high motivation to win early-season marquee event games; Texas aims to assert dominance through defense and rebounding, while Arizona State aims to leverage offensive firepower and 3-point shooting.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona St Sun Devils: 285, Texas Longhorns: -365 | Texas Longhorns win | β β β β β 78% |
| Spread | Arizona St Sun Devils: -7.5 -110, Texas Longhorns: +7.5 -110 | Texas Longhorns to cover the -7.5 spread | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over: 152.5 -114, Under: 152.5 -106 | Under 152.5 points | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 26% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 26% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 27.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas Longhorns are favored to win due to superior defensive metrics, rebounding control, and consistent team structure. Arizona State's turnovers could be a decisive factor in limiting their scoring opportunities.
Predicted Score: Texas Longhorns 78 – Arizona State Sun Devils 66