Match Analysis: Texas A&M Aggies vs Manhattan Jaspers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: Reed Arena, College Station, TX
Game Overview
Manhattan Jaspers (3-2) travel to face Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) in a non-conference college basketball matchup. Despite identical records, Texas A&M enters as heavy -23.5 point favorites due to their dominant home performance this season. Both teams bring similar offensive capabilities, but Texas A&M's home court advantage and recent form against non-conference opponents heavily favors the hosts.
Key Factors to Consider
- Texas A&M has won 29 of their last 30 night games against non-conference opponents at Reed Arena and remains undefeated in three home games this season. The Aggies average 85.0 PPG offensively (105th nationally) with 45.2% field goal shooting (199th) and 32.0% three-point shooting (237th). Manhattan has lost five of their last six road night games against non-conference opponents. Both teams exhibit nearly identical offensive efficiency, though Manhattan boasts better shooting percentages both from the field and from three-point range. Manhattan is 3-1 against the spread this season.
- No historical head-to-head data available for these programs in recent seasons. This appears to be a first-time matchup or a rare non-conference encounter.
- Texas A&M is without Pop Isaacs (G), who is out for the season with a hip injury. No significant injuries reported for Manhattan.
- Texas A&M's exceptional home court dominance (29-1 in night games against non-conference opponents) represents a significant environmental advantage. Reed Arena provides a strong home-court edge. The betting market shows 50% public support split evenly between both teams, suggesting sharp money may be driving the heavy spread.
- Texas A&M seeks to maintain their undefeated home record and dominant night-game performance streak. Manhattan, on the road and struggling in away contests, faces a motivational challenge but may be motivated to compete as underdogs and cover the large spread.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Manhattan: +2200 | Texas A&M: -8000 | Texas A&M Aggies Win | β β β β β 85% |
| Spread | Manhattan: +23.5 -110 | Texas A&M: -23.5 -110 | Manhattan Jaspers +23.5 (COVER) | β β β β β 72% |
| Over/under | Over 165.5 -115 | Under 165.5 -105 | OVER 165.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 165.5 8% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 165.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 9.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Texas A&M Aggies are expected to win this matchup decisively. However, the 23.5-point spread appears inflated relative to the teams' statistical similarity. Texas A&M's home dominance is undeniable, but Manhattan's superior shooting efficiency and 3-1 ATS record suggest they will keep the game more competitive than the spread implies. Expect a Texas A&M victory by 15-18 points, making Manhattan an attractive cover candidate at +23.5.
Predicted Score: Texas A&M 82 – Manhattan 68 (Final: Texas A&M by 14)