Match Analysis: Tennessee Volunteers vs Tennessee St Tigers – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Thompson-Boling Arena, Knoxville
Game Overview
The Tennessee Volunteers (4-0) host the Tennessee State Tigers (2-2) in a non-conference matchup. The Volunteers enter the game with a dominant home record and strong offensive and defensive metrics, while the Tigers have shown offensive firepower but struggle against high-level competition. The spread reflects a significant gap in talent and recent form, with Tennessee favored by over 30 points.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tennessee averages 90.3 points per game, shoots 51.5% from the field, and allows just 62.3 points per game (30th in D-1). They are also top-2 in assists and rebounding. Tennessee State averages 94.0 points per game but has lost four of their last nine games against SEC opponents and struggles defensively, allowing 78.2% from the free-throw line and 33% from three. The Volunteers have a 40-game home win streak against non-conference opponents.
- Tennessee State has lost each of their last nine games against SEC opponents, including recent matchups with Tennessee. Tennessee has dominated the series, especially at home, with a long-standing winning streak against non-conference foes.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is played at Thompson-Boling Arena, a hostile environment for visiting teams. Tennessee State is 0-2 on the road this season, while Tennessee is 4-0 at home. The Volunteers are well-rested and have not faced a close game this season.
- Tennessee is motivated to maintain their undefeated record and dominant home streak. Tennessee State seeks an upset but faces a steep challenge against a much deeper and more athletic team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee St Tigers: 3300, Tennessee Volunteers: -10000 | Tennessee Volunteers | β β β β β 98% |
| Spread | Tennessee St Tigers: 32.5 -115, Tennessee Volunteers: -32.5 -105 | Tennessee Volunteers -32.5 | β β β β β 85% |
| Over/under | Over: 151.5 -110, Under: 151.5 -110 | Over 151.5 | β β β β β 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 151.5 43% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Over 151.5 at 43% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 47.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Tennessee is expected to control the game from the start, leveraging their size, rebounding, and defensive pressure. The Tigers may score points but will struggle to keep pace. Tennessee is likely to cover the spread and push the total over 151.5 points.
Predicted Score: Tennessee Volunteers 92, Tennessee State Tigers 67